2025
Week 5 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 31–28 from as low as 6% (Q2 9:00, down 14–0). The Chiefs had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:38: T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for B.Thomas INTERCEPTED by B.Cook (C.Conner) at KC -5. Touchback. PENALTY on KC-C.Conner, Defensive Pass… (34% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 2:36, 45 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 2:36JAXP.Mahomes pass short middle intended for J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by D.Lloyd at JAX 1. D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24% → 69%
- 2Q4 1:01JAXT.Lawrence pass deep right to B.Thomas pushed ob at KC 24 for 33 yards (C.Conner).20% → 46%
- 3Q4 0:30JAXT.Lawrence scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-C.Conner, Defensive Holding, declined.54% → 79%
- 4Q4 0:38JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left intended for B.Thomas INTERCEPTED by B.Cook (C.Conner) at KC -5. Touchback. PENALTY on KC-C.Conner, Defensive Pass…turning point34% → 54%
- 5Q4 13:12KCT.Lawrence pass short right intended for P.Washington INTERCEPTED by T.McDuffie [G.Karlaftis] at JAX 21. T.McDuffie to JAX 19 for 2 yards…24% → 40%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +7.4 EPA (29 of 41 for 318). T.Hunter led the Jaguars at +4.0 EPA (3 catches for 64).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 29/41 | 318 | 1 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt33% | 7 | 32% | 49 | 2 | +2.8 |
| I.Pacheco62% | 7 | 32% | 36 | +0.6 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 6 | 27% | 60 | 1 | +4.7 |
| X.Worthy77% | 1 | 5% | 9 | +0.9 | |
| B.Smith9% | 1 | 5% | 4 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X.Worthy77% | 9 | 23% | 6 | 42 | +0.6 | |
| T.Kelce80% | 8 | 20% | 7 | 61 | 1 | +3.2 |
| M.Brown52% | 8 | 20% | 4 | 48 | +2.4 | |
| T.Thornton45% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 90 | +6.4 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster66% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 17 | -11.7 | |
| I.Pacheco62% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 20 | +1.0 | |
| B.Smith9% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 32 | +1.3 | |
| K.Hunt33% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | 0.0 |
Defense T.McDuffie 1 INT, C.Omenihu 1 sack, J.Watson 1 sack, G.Karlaftis 0.5 sacks
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 18/25 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -0.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne59% | 12 | 46% | 49 | +1.4 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 10 | 38% | 54 | 2 | +2.3 |
| B.Tuten21% | 4 | 15% | 6 | -1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Jr.93% | 6 | 24% | 4 | 80 | +3.5 | |
| D.Brown66% | 4 | 16% | 2 | 15 | -0.8 | |
| T.Etienne59% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 9 | -3.2 | |
| P.Washington26% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 16 | 1 | -3.4 |
| T.Hunter67% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 64 | +4.0 | |
| J.Mundt34% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 | |
| T.Patrick9% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| H.Long60% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -0.4 | |
| B.Strange38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 22 | +1.3 | |
| B.Tuten21% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | 0.0 |
Defense D.Lloyd 1 INT · Kicking C.Little 1/1 FG (long 52)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Jaguars
Jaguars convert 41% of third downs (14th). Chiefs allow 44% (27th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chiefs give up 5.9 targets a game to tight ends (4th), against a league average of 7.3. Jaguars' tight ends produce 6.1 (23rd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Jaguars average +0.03 EPA per play (13th). Chiefs allow -0.02 (12th). League average is +0.01.
The Chiefs lead the series 10–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | KC 28 at JAX 31 |
| 2023 · Wk 2 | KC 17 at JAX 9 |
| 2022 · Wk 20 · playoffs | JAX 20 at KC 27 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 | JAX 17 at KC 27 |
| 2019 · Wk 1 | KC 40 at JAX 26 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 13–4 |
| Division | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–4 | 7–2 |
| Away | 1–7 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.