2025
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 44–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 12:04, 7 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:04BALC.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (K.Van Noy).23% → 30%
- 2Q1 4:18BALC.Rush pass short middle to D.Hopkins to HOU 16 for 29 yards (K.Lassiter) [E.Speed]. Penalty on HOU-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, declined.28% → 35%
- 3Q1 14:12HOUC.Stroud pass short middle to N.Collins to BAL 40 for 24 yards (M.Starks; T.Tampa).60% → 67%
- 4Q2 11:23HOUK.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD70% → 75%
- 5Q2 14:55HOUC.Stroud pass short middle to D.Schultz to BAL 40 for 12 yards (T.Buchanan; R.Lowery).71% → 76%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Stroud led the Texans at +21.3 EPA (23 of 27 for 244). D.Hopkins led the Ravens at +3.3 EPA (2 catches for 46).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud80% | 23/27 | 244 | 4 | 2 | +18.3 | |
| D.Mills20% | 2/4 | 23 | +0.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Chubb34% | 11 | 33% | 61 | 1 | +2.1 |
| D.Pierce23% | 7 | 21% | 21 | -0.5 | |
| W.Marks39% | 7 | 21% | 24 | -3.1 | |
| D.Mills20% | 3 | 9% | 3 | -2.9 | |
| B.Brooks16% | 2 | 6% | 15 | +3.7 | |
| N.Collins57% | 1 | 3% | 8 | +0.5 | |
| C.Stroud80% | 1 | 3% | 30 | +3.0 | |
| J.Noel30% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz59% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 60 | +5.9 | |
| N.Collins57% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 52 | 1 | +5.2 |
| C.Kirk49% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 64 | +4.7 | |
| J.Higgins56% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 32 | +1.8 | |
| X.Hutchinson67% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 18 | 2 | +3.9 |
| J.Noel30% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 13 | 1 | +1.6 |
| H.Bryant27% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| B.Bates19% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 23 | +2.6 | |
| N.Chubb34% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| W.Marks39% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Pitre 2 INT, K.Lassiter 1 INT, M.Edwards 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 3/3 FG (long 57)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Rush100% | 14/20 | 179 | 3 | 1 | -7.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry65% | 15 | 79% | 33 | 1 | -4.6 |
| K.Mitchell9% | 3 | 16% | 8 | -0.5 | |
| J.Hill30% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers84% | 5 | 25% | 5 | 72 | +2.4 | |
| M.Andrews58% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 22 | -3.2 | |
| R.Bateman81% | 3 | 15% | 0 | 0 | -4.5 | |
| D.Hopkins26% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 46 | +3.3 | |
| J.Hill30% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 9 | -0.3 | |
| D.Henry65% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -6.3 | |
| Z.Mitchell-Paden28% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 | |
| I.Likely53% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +2.2 | |
| C.Kolar47% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 10 | +1.1 | |
| K.Mitchell9% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 |
Defense K.Noy 1 sack, T.Simpson 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (long 27)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Ravens average 5.2 yards per carry (1st). Texans allow 3.5 (2nd).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Ravens gain -0.04 EPA per dropback (24th). Texans allow -0.22 (1st).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Ravens gain 5.9 yards per play (6th). Texans give up 4.7 (2nd), with the league at 5.4.
The Ravens lead the series 13–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | HOU 44 at BAL 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | BAL 31 at HOU 2 |
| 2023 · Wk 20 · playoffs | HOU 10 at BAL 34 |
| 2023 · Wk 1 | HOU 9 at BAL 25 |
| 2020 · Wk 2 | BAL 33 at HOU 16 |
2025 records
| Texans | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LWLWL |
| Streak | Won 9 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.