2025
Week 5 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cardinals, 17 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Titans won 22–21 from as low as 1% (Q4 13:34, down 21–6). The Cardinals had been 74% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:32: C.Ward pass deep right to C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards (25% → 60%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:03, 44 points for the Titans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:03TENJ.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD56% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:32TENC.Ward pass deep right to C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards.turning point25% → 60%
- 3Q4 4:53TENC.Ward pass short left intended for C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by D.Taylor-Demerson (Ma.Wilson) at ARI 5. D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 5 for no gain.…9% → 20%
- 4Q4 0:14ARIC.Ward kneels to ARI 11 for -2 yards.35% → 44%
- 5Q4 2:00TENB.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, fair catch by C.Dike.20% → 28%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Ridley led the Titans at +11.8 EPA (5 catches for 131). M.Jr. led the Cardinals at +8.4 EPA (4 catches for 98).
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 21/39 | 265 | 1 | 2 | +1.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard73% | 14 | 58% | 67 | 1 | -4.2 |
| C.Ward100% | 5 | 21% | -6 | -3.0 | |
| T.Spears25% | 4 | 17% | 14 | +0.0 | |
| J.Chestnut4% | 1 | 4% | 3 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ridley66% | 10 | 27% | 5 | 131 | +11.8 | |
| C.Okonkwo63% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 48 | +1.5 | |
| G.Helm66% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 34 | +2.1 | |
| C.Dike49% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 17 | -1.2 | |
| T.Lockett25% | 4 | 11% | 1 | 6 | -5.4 | |
| E.Ayomanor72% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 18 | -1.1 | |
| T.Pollard73% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 11 | -0.3 | |
| J.Chestnut4% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Simmons 1.5 sacks, S.Joseph-Day 1 sack, A.Key 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Slye 3/3 FG (long 51)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray96% | 23/31 | 220 | 3 | +2.0 | ||
| J.Brissett4% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Carter57% | 18 | 62% | 51 | 1 | -3.8 |
| K.Murray96% | 4 | 14% | 25 | 1 | +0.3 |
| B.Knight16% | 4 | 14% | 11 | 1 | +0.6 |
| E.Demercado28% | 3 | 10% | 81 | -3.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride90% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 41 | +2.3 | |
| M.Carter57% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 22 | +0.1 | |
| M.Jr.76% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 98 | +8.4 | |
| M.Wilson69% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 16 | -1.6 | |
| Z.Jones50% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 8 | -0.9 | |
| G.Dortch7% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 12 | +0.7 | |
| E.Higgins29% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 10 | -0.5 | |
| B.Knight16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +1.0 | |
| T.Reiman37% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense J.Sweat 2 sacks, D.Taylor-Demerson 1 INT
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Titans give up 56 yards a game to tight ends (21st), against a league average of 53. Cardinals' tight ends produce 93 (1st).
Deep middle is open
Titans are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Cardinals take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (23rd). Titans get home on 8% (9th). League average is 7%.
Success rate
Call this one even. Cardinals succeed on 43% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 45% (22nd).
The Cardinals lead the series 4–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | TEN 22 at ARI 21 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | ARI 38 at TEN 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 14 | TEN 7 at ARI 12 |
| 2013 · Wk 15 · OT | ARI 37 at TEN 34 |
| 2009 · Wk 12 | ARI 17 at TEN 20 |
2025 records
| Titans | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 3–14 |
| Division | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 0–5 |
| Home | 1–8 | 1–7 |
| Away | 2–6 | 2–7 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 9 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 28.1 | 20.9 – 28.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#22 | +0.10#28 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#21 | 45%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#23 | 6.0#28 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#29 | 11%#22 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#15 | +0.17#29 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#29 | -0.02#22 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#24 | 4.2#18 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#9 | 42%#19 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#22 | 67%#31 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 125#23 | 166#28 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 93#1 | 56#21 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 12.8#1 | 7.1#15 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#6 | 27#7 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.