2025
Week 9 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Titans offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Titans, 18 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 27–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 65%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 11:25, 14 points for the Titans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 11:25LACJ.Herbert pass short right intended for K.Allen INTERCEPTED by C.Barton at LAC 24. C.Barton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 34%
- 2Q1 3:13LACJ.Scott punts 60 yards to TEN 33 C.Dike for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26% → 35%
- 3Q3 12:24TENC.Ward pass deep middle to E.Ayomanor to LAC 40 for 29 yards (D.James).21% → 29%
- 4Q2 3:09TENC.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -8 yards (D.Henley).73% → 80%
- 5Q2 5:07TENJ.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD16% → 23%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Herbert led the Chargers at +5.9 EPA (19 of 29 for 250). E.Ayomanor led the Titans at +2.3 EPA (3 catches for 46).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 19/29 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Vidal72% | 12 | 40% | 30 | -1.4 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 9 | 30% | 57 | 1 | +4.1 |
| J.Patterson28% | 9 | 30% | 44 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Johnston68% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 53 | 1 | +3.7 |
| L.McConkey69% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 56 | +1.9 | |
| K.Allen37% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 41 | -3.7 | |
| O.II80% | 5 | 18% | 5 | 68 | +5.8 | |
| T.Harris46% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 18 | +2.0 | |
| T.Fisk48% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 12 | +0.8 | |
| S.Matlock43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1.2 |
| K.Vidal72% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| K.Lambert-Smith8% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense O.Oweh 2 sacks, D.Henley 1 sack, T.Tuipulotu 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 2/2 FG (long 52)
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 12/21 | 145 | 4 | -1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard62% | 10 | 53% | 56 | -2.5 | |
| T.Spears45% | 7 | 37% | 26 | -2.4 | |
| C.Ward100% | 2 | 11% | 6 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Ayomanor64% | 6 | 29% | 3 | 46 | +2.3 | |
| V.Jefferson83% | 4 | 19% | 1 | 21 | -0.2 | |
| T.Spears45% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 36 | +1.2 | |
| C.Dike87% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 5 | -0.3 | |
| T.Pollard62% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 12 | +0.3 | |
| C.Okonkwo68% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 10 | -1.2 | |
| G.Helm45% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 15 | +1.3 |
Defense J.Ward 2.5 sacks, C.Barton 1 INT, D.Jones 1.5 sacks, S.Joseph-Day 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 2/2 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Chargers give up 29 yards a game to running backs (15th), against a league average of 32. Titans' running backs produce 28 (19th).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.49 EPA per attempt. Titans send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Chargers
Titans convert 33% of third downs (32nd). Chargers allow 35% (3rd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Titans create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (26th). Chargers give them up at 9% (17th).
The Chargers lead the series 12–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 | LAC 27 at TEN 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | TEN 17 at LAC 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 2 · OT | LAC 24 at TEN 27 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | TEN 14 at LAC 17 |
| 2019 · Wk 7 | LAC 20 at TEN 23 |
2025 records
| Chargers | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–3 | 1–8 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | WLWLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 21.6 – 20.0 | 16.7 – 28.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TEN off | Favors TEN · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.16#30 | -0.08#7 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 41%#6 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#30 | 5.2#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 9%#17 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#31 | -0.09#10 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 9%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#26 | -0.12#3 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#19 | 4.1#14 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#32 | 35%#3 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#14 | 44%#1 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#27 | 127#8 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#13 | 43#6 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#8 | 5.7#2 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#19 | 29#15 | 32 | |
Titans: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.