2025
Week 9 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Commanders offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 38–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 3:09, 6 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:09SEAS.Darnold pass short left to T.Horton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.72% → 78%
- 2Q1 9:30WASS.Darnold pass short right to T.Horton ran ob at SEA 45 for 5 yards. PENALTY on SEA-R.Ouzts, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 40 - No Play.36% → 42%
- 3Q2 8:57SEAS.Darnold pass deep right to T.Horton for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-Q.Martin has returned to the game.86% → 91%
- 4Q2 15:00WASJ.Daniels pass short middle to J.Bates to SEA 48 for 10 yards (E.Jones).20% → 24%
- 5Q2 13:14SEAJ.Daniels scrambles right end to SEA 34 for 6 yards (T.Woolen). PENALTY on WAS-C.Paul, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 40 - No Play.76% → 81%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +22.5 EPA (21 of 24 for 330). C.Jr. led the Commanders at +4.2 EPA (12 carries for 65).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold94% | 21/24 | 330 | 4 | 1 | +22.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III57% | 11 | 46% | 42 | -1.1 | |
| Z.Charbonnet35% | 8 | 33% | 25 | -0.4 | |
| G.Holani6% | 3 | 13% | 9 | -1.2 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba67% | 1 | 4% | 11 | +0.6 | |
| A.Barner84% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba67% | 9 | 38% | 8 | 129 | +6.8 | |
| A.Barner84% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 24 | +2.1 | |
| T.Horton73% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 48 | 2 | +6.5 |
| C.White71% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 60 | 1 | +1.2 |
| K.III57% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 19 | +1.7 | |
| E.Arroyo43% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 29 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Z.Charbonnet35% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 21 | +1.4 |
Defense T.Okada 1 INT, L.Williams 1 sack, D.Thomas 1 sack, D.Lawrence 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Myers 1/1 FG (long 41)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels88% | 16/22 | 153 | 1 | 4 | -1.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.34% | 12 | 33% | 65 | 1 | +4.2 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt46% | 12 | 33% | 38 | -2.5 | |
| J.Daniels88% | 10 | 28% | 51 | 1 | +0.5 |
| J.McNichols26% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.7 | |
| D.Sr.68% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sr.68% | 6 | 29% | 5 | 41 | +0.6 | |
| J.Lane63% | 5 | 24% | 3 | 29 | -1.0 | |
| Z.Ertz63% | 4 | 19% | 4 | 46 | +1.9 | |
| J.Bates49% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 20 | +2.5 | |
| T.Burks51% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +0.8 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt46% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 3 | +1.4 |
Defense M.Sainristil 1 INT
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Seahawks give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 7.3. Commanders' tight ends produce 6.1 (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Seahawks
Commanders convert 39% of third downs (22nd). Seahawks allow 34% (1st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Commanders succeed on 46% of plays (9th) against a defense that allows 40% (3rd).
The Commanders lead the series 9–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). Sep 27, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the Commanders won 33–31. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Drew Lock for the Seahawks; Dan Quinn and Mike Macdonald coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | SEA 31 at WAS 33 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | SEA 38 at WAS 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | WAS 26 at SEA 29 |
| 2021 · Wk 12 | SEA 15 at WAS 17 |
| 2020 · Wk 15 | SEA 20 at WAS 15 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 5–12 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–2 | 2–6 |
| Away | 8–1 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LWLLW |
| Streak | Won 7 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.