2025
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Browns offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Browns, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 17–16; their low point was 37% at Q4 4:31. The game turned for good at Q4 3:10: J.Flacco sacked at CIN 18 for -6 yards (B.Hill) (45% → 60%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:30, 41 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:30CINJ.Flacco pass short left intended for C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by D.Turner at CLE 47. D.Turner to CLE 40 for 7 yards (J.Ford).52% → 93%
- 2Q4 2:25CINA.Szmyt 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right60% → 76%
- 3Q4 3:10CINJ.Flacco sacked at CIN 18 for -6 yards (B.Hill).turning point45% → 60%
- 4Q3 4:59CINJ.Flacco pass deep middle intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by J.Battle at CLE 36. J.Battle to CLE 29 for 7 yards (H.Fannin; J.Ford). The Replay…53% → 66%
- 5Q4 0:08CINJ.Flacco pass deep left to J.Jeudy to CLE 29 for 25 yards (G.Stone; D.Hill) [T.Hendrickson].87% → 100%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Higgins led the Bengals at +3.4 EPA (3 catches for 33). R.Sanders led the Browns at +3.4 EPA (3 carries for 3).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 14/23 | 113 | 1 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown75% | 21 | 91% | 43 | 1 | -3.4 |
| J.Burrow100% | 2 | 9% | 3 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Fant50% | 5 | 22% | 4 | 26 | 1 | +1.8 |
| J.Chase87% | 5 | 22% | 2 | 26 | -1.6 | |
| T.Higgins79% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 33 | +3.4 | |
| M.Gesicki31% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 14 | +1.1 | |
| C.Brown75% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 8 | -1.4 | |
| S.Perine25% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| D.Sample69% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense D.II 1 INT, J.Battle 1 INT, T.Hendrickson 1 sack, B.Hill 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 35)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 31/45 | 290 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sampson43% | 12 | 50% | 29 | -2.1 | |
| J.Ford54% | 6 | 25% | 8 | -2.9 | |
| R.Sanders4% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 1 | +3.4 |
| J.Flacco100% | 2 | 8% | 6 | +0.1 | |
| H.Jr.72% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Jr.72% | 9 | 21% | 7 | 63 | +0.5 | |
| J.Jeudy88% | 8 | 19% | 5 | 66 | -3.3 | |
| C.Tillman88% | 8 | 19% | 5 | 52 | 1 | +0.8 |
| D.Sampson43% | 8 | 19% | 8 | 64 | +5.0 | |
| D.Njoku84% | 6 | 14% | 3 | 37 | +0.5 | |
| J.Ford54% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -3 | -1.0 | |
| J.Thrash28% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 6 | +0.1 | |
| I.Bond28% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 |
Defense M.Garrett 2 sacks, I.McGuire 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 1/2 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bengals give up 9.7 targets a game to tight ends (32nd), against a league average of 7.3. Browns' tight ends produce 9.9 (2nd).
Deep left is open
Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Browns send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Browns' wide receivers produce 86 (32nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Browns average -0.19 EPA per play (31st). Bengals allow +0.13 (29th). League average is +0.01.
The Bengals lead the series 32–22 since 1999. Jan 4, 2026, at Paycor Stadium: the Browns won 20–18. Joe Burrow started at quarterback for the Bengals and Shedeur Sanders for the Browns; Zac Taylor and Kevin Stefanski coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | CLE 20 at CIN 18 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | CIN 17 at CLE 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | CLE 6 at CIN 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | CIN 21 at CLE 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 18 | CLE 14 at CIN 31 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 5–12 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Home | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Away | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | LLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.19#31 | +0.13#29 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 48%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#32 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#30 | 12%#30 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.29#32 | +0.16#28 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#25 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#25 | +0.06#31 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#30 | 5.2#31 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#29 | 44%#26 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#26 | 65%#25 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 86#32 | 116#3 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 63#6 | 85#32 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.9#2 | 9.7#32 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#7 | 43#29 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.