2025
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
vs
Saints offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cardinals won 20–13 and were favored the whole way, never below 55%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 13:41, 10 points for the Cardinals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:41ARIK.Murray pass deep right to M.Harrison ran ob at NO 14 for 45 yards (K.McKinstry).58% → 68%
- 2Q1 11:39ARIB.Gillikin punts 60 yards to NO 16 R.Shaheed to NO 23 for 7 yards (A.Davis-Gaither; E.Higgins).58% → 68%
- 3Q2 14:26NOA.Kamara right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.35% → 45%
- 4Q2 2:07ARIK.Murray pass short middle to T.McBride to NO 20 for 25 yards (J.Blackmon; K.McKinstry).68% → 77%
- 5Q1 13:40NOK.Murray sacked at ARI 25 for -11 yards (C.Jordan).25% → 34%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Jr. led the Cardinals at +5.7 EPA (5 catches for 71). J.Johnson led the Saints at +4.3 EPA (8 catches for 76).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 21/29 | 163 | 2 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Conner65% | 12 | 44% | 39 | -2.8 | |
| T.Benson33% | 8 | 30% | 69 | +1.2 | |
| K.Murray100% | 7 | 26% | 38 | +2.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride97% | 9 | 31% | 6 | 61 | +4.4 | |
| M.Jr.89% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 71 | 1 | +5.7 |
| J.Conner65% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 5 | 1 | +0.5 |
| M.Wilson67% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 5 | -1.0 | |
| E.Higgins30% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Z.Jones47% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +0.1 | |
| G.Dortch15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -2 | -1.2 | |
| T.Reiman52% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +1.4 | |
| T.Benson33% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 |
Defense B.Browning 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/3 FG (long 50)
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler100% | 27/46 | 214 | 1 | -3.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara79% | 11 | 50% | 45 | 1 | -0.9 |
| K.Miller15% | 5 | 23% | 24 | +0.1 | |
| S.Rattler100% | 4 | 18% | 29 | +1.8 | |
| D.Neal9% | 2 | 9% | 9 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave85% | 13 | 32% | 7 | 54 | -2.8 | |
| J.Johnson99% | 11 | 27% | 8 | 76 | +4.3 | |
| R.Shaheed85% | 9 | 22% | 6 | 33 | -2.2 | |
| B.Cooks76% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 26 | +1.5 | |
| A.Kamara79% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 12 | +0.8 | |
| D.Vele23% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 13 | +0.7 |
Defense C.Jordan 1.5 sacks, C.Granderson 1.5 sacks, P.Werner 1 sack, A.Taylor 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 2/3 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Cardinals give up 69 yards a game to tight ends (30th), against a league average of 53. Saints' tight ends produce 60 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Saints' run game is 31st in EPA per carry (-0.15). Cardinals allow -0.02 (25th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Saints average -0.09 EPA per play (27th). Cardinals allow +0.09 (27th). League average is +0.01.
The Saints lead the series 6–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Cardinals have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 1 | ARI 20 at NO 13 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | NO 34 at ARI 42 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | ARI 9 at NO 31 |
| 2016 · Wk 15 | NO 48 at ARI 41 |
| 2015 · Wk 1 | NO 19 at ARI 31 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 6–11 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Home | 1–7 | 3–5 |
| Away | 2–7 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 18.0 – 22.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.