2025
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Commanders offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 17 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Commanders won 21–6 and were favored the whole way, never below 65%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 1:54, 6 points for the Giants.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:54NYGR.Wilson pass short left to W.Robinson to WAS 17 for 8 yards (M.Lattimore; F.Luvu). PENALTY on WAS-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards,…22% → 27%
- 2Q1 11:13NYGJ.Gillan punts 53 yards to WAS 21 J.Lane to WAS 30 for 9 yards (D.Belton). PENALTY on WAS-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.29% → 35%
- 3Q3 1:47NYGG.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD6% → 11%
- 4Q2 6:19WASJ.Croskey-Merritt right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.85% → 90%
- 5Q2 0:07NYGJ.Daniels pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on WAS-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 4.4% → 9%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Bellinger led the Giants at +2.4 EPA (1 catches for 14). D.Sr. led the Commanders at +5.2 EPA (7 catches for 77).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Wilson100% | 17/37 | 168 | 2 | -11.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jr.74% | 10 | 43% | 24 | -3.1 | |
| R.Wilson100% | 8 | 35% | 44 | +2.0 | |
| D.Singletary15% | 3 | 13% | 9 | -0.3 | |
| C.Skattebo12% | 2 | 9% | -3 | -2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Nabers94% | 12 | 38% | 5 | 71 | -1.1 | |
| W.Robinson76% | 8 | 25% | 6 | 55 | +1.4 | |
| T.Jr.74% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 11 | -4.2 | |
| T.Johnson78% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 5 | -2.3 | |
| C.Skattebo12% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | -0.1 | |
| D.Slayton97% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| D.Bellinger22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +2.4 |
Defense B.Burns 2 sacks, K.Thibodeaux 0.5 sacks, A.Carter 0.5 sacks · Kicking G.Gano 2/2 FG (long 55)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 19/30 | 233 | 1 | 3 | +1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 11 | 34% | 68 | +3.2 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt33% | 10 | 31% | 82 | 1 | +2.9 |
| A.Ekeler47% | 6 | 19% | 26 | -0.3 | |
| J.McNichols19% | 4 | 13% | 25 | -0.5 | |
| D.Sr.77% | 1 | 3% | 19 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sr.77% | 10 | 34% | 7 | 77 | +2.8 | |
| Z.Ertz64% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 26 | 1 | -0.3 |
| T.McLaurin79% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 27 | -1.0 | |
| N.Brown47% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 27 | +1.6 | |
| A.Ekeler47% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 31 | +2.6 | |
| J.Lane30% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 11 | +0.6 | |
| C.Moore27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 34 | +2.4 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense D.Payne 1 sack, D.Armstrong 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Giants allow 5.4 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Giants are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Giants give up 47 yards a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 53. Commanders' tight ends produce 43 (24th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Commanders average +0.01 EPA per play (17th). Giants allow +0.08 (25th). League average is +0.01.
The Giants lead the series 32–21–2 since 1999. Oct 11, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the teams tied 27–27 in overtime. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Jameis Winston for the Giants; Dan Quinn and John Harbaugh coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 · OT | NYG 27 at WAS 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | WAS 29 at NYG 21 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | NYG 6 at WAS 21 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | WAS 27 at NYG 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | NYG 18 at WAS 21 |
2025 records
| Giants | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–13 | 5–12 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Away | 1–8 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | LWLLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.8 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | +0.08#25 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 47%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 6.0#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 12%#32 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | +0.02#16 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | +0.13#32 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 5.4#32 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 40%#14 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 63%#23 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 152#23 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 47#10 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 6.7#9 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 31#19 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.