2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Giants offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Giants, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 24–20 from as low as 6% (Q4 7:58, down 20–10). The game turned for good at Q4 2:14: C.Williams pass deep right to L.Burden to NYG 19 for 27 yards (T.Nubin; K.Black) (48% → 64%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:06, 18 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:06CHIR.Wilson sacked at NYG 27 for -11 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).28% → 46%
- 2Q4 2:14CHIC.Williams pass deep right to L.Burden to NYG 19 for 27 yards (T.Nubin; K.Black).turning point48% → 64%
- 3Q4 1:54CHIC.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.61% → 77%
- 4Q4 0:43CHIR.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to W.Robinson (T.Edmunds) [T.Edmunds].86% → 98%
- 5Q2 5:32CHIJ.Dart pass incomplete deep right to D.Bellinger (J.Brisker). CHI-J.Brisker was injured during the play.49% → 60%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Dart led the Giants at +7.5 EPA (19 of 29 for 242). R.Odunze led the Bears at +5.0 EPA (6 catches for 86).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dart71% | 19/29 | 242 | 2 | +3.4 | ||
| R.Wilson29% | 3/7 | 45 | 2 | -2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jr.67% | 14 | 47% | 71 | -1.0 | |
| D.Singletary33% | 8 | 27% | 20 | -2.3 | |
| J.Dart71% | 6 | 20% | 66 | 2 | +4.1 |
| R.Wilson29% | 2 | 7% | 12 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson99% | 11 | 34% | 6 | 62 | +0.5 | |
| T.Johnson97% | 8 | 25% | 7 | 75 | +3.3 | |
| D.Slayton62% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 89 | +7.0 | |
| D.Singletary33% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 53 | +2.9 | |
| G.Olszewski38% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Bellinger73% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -2.9 | |
| T.Jr.67% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking Y.Koo 2/2 FG (long 32)
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 20/36 | 220 | 1 | -6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift62% | 13 | 46% | 80 | +1.2 | |
| C.Williams100% | 8 | 29% | 63 | 1 | +4.5 |
| K.Monangai38% | 7 | 25% | 28 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze78% | 10 | 28% | 6 | 86 | 1 | +5.0 |
| D.Swift62% | 8 | 22% | 5 | 18 | -8.1 | |
| D.Moore62% | 4 | 11% | 0 | 0 | -5.4 | |
| O.Zaccheaus57% | 4 | 11% | 1 | 5 | -3.8 | |
| C.Loveland62% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 55 | +3.8 | |
| L.III49% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 51 | +3.3 | |
| C.Kmet66% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 5 | -0.4 | |
| K.Monangai38% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense C.Gardner-Johnson 2 sacks, M.Sweat 1.5 sacks, G.Sr. 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG (long 22)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Giants' run game is 10th in EPA per carry (-0.03). Bears allow -0.03 (19th).
Deep middle is open
Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Giants send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Giants score a touchdown on 51% of red zone trips (25th). Bears allow 59% (17th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Giants succeed on 42% of plays (27th) against a defense that allows 46% (25th).
The Bears lead the series 7–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | NYG 20 at CHI 24 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | CHI 12 at NYG 20 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | NYG 3 at CHI 29 |
| 2020 · Wk 2 | NYG 13 at CHI 17 |
| 2019 · Wk 12 | NYG 14 at CHI 19 |
2025 records
| Giants | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–13 | 11–6 |
| Division | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Away | 1–8 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.8 | 25.9 – 24.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYG off | Favors NYG · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#16 | +0.03#21 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#27 | 46%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#18 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 12%#29 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#19 | +0.05#19 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#24 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#10 | -0.03#19 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#22 | 4.7#29 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#16 | 41%#15 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 51%#25 | 59%#17 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#21 | 163#26 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#21 | 52#14 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#24 | 7.4#18 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#5 | 27#6 | 32 | |
Giants: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.