2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 17 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 27–19; their low point was 37% at Q2 8:03. The game turned for good at Q2 0:30: L.Jackson pass short middle to J.Hill to BAL 37 for 12 yards (B.Cashman; A.Van Ginkel) (49% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:05, 14 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:05MINT.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD35% → 49%
- 2Q3 10:19BALT.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 0. M.Price to MIN 23 for 23 yards (K.Jackson; T.Simpson). FUMBLES (K.Jackson), RECOVERED by BAL-K.Jackson…68% → 81%
- 3Q1 10:40MINJ.McCarthy pass deep left to J.Nailor to BAL 4 for 62 yards (A.Gilman).37% → 47%
- 4Q2 14:03MINJ.McCarthy pass deep middle to J.Nailor to BAL 33 for 18 yards (M.Starks) [T.Jones].50% → 58%
- 5Q3 12:55BALJ.McCarthy pass deep middle intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by M.Humphrey at BAL 2. M.Humphrey ran ob at BAL 29 for 27 yards (D.Jackson;…53% → 60%
- ★Q2 0:30BALL.Jackson pass short middle to J.Hill to BAL 37 for 12 yards (B.Cashman; A.Van Ginkel).turning point49% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +2.9 EPA (4 catches for 75). J.Nailor led the Vikings at +15.3 EPA (5 catches for 124).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 17/29 | 176 | 1 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry67% | 20 | 56% | 75 | -2.4 | |
| L.Jackson100% | 9 | 25% | 36 | +1.0 | |
| K.Mitchell7% | 4 | 11% | 31 | +0.3 | |
| P.Ricard53% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +0.5 | |
| J.Hill27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Z.Flowers83% | 1 | 3% | 6 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers83% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 75 | +3.1 | |
| M.Andrews63% | 5 | 18% | 3 | 14 | 1 | +0.3 |
| D.Hopkins27% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 16 | -1.8 | |
| I.Likely56% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 17 | -2.3 | |
| D.Henry67% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 9 | -0.7 | |
| J.Hill27% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 12 | -0.3 | |
| R.Bateman61% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 10 | +2.4 | |
| C.Kolar43% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 23 | +0.6 |
Defense M.Humphrey 1 INT, M.Starks 1 INT, T.Jones 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 4/5 FG (long 44)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 20/42 | 248 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -9.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones71% | 9 | 50% | 47 | 1 | -0.1 |
| J.McCarthy100% | 5 | 28% | 48 | +0.0 | |
| J.Mason25% | 4 | 22% | 25 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 12 | 29% | 4 | 37 | -11.1 | |
| J.Addison95% | 11 | 27% | 3 | 35 | -8.0 | |
| A.Jones71% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 22 | -2.6 | |
| J.Nailor68% | 6 | 15% | 5 | 124 | 1 | +15.3 |
| A.Thielen14% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 16 | -1.4 | |
| T.Hockenson91% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 8 | -0.3 | |
| J.Mason25% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 |
Defense J.Allen 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Ravens' run game is 3rd in EPA per carry (+0.05). Vikings allow -0.08 (13th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.35 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Ravens take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (27th). Vikings get home on 10% (2nd). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Ravens gain 5.9 yards per play (6th). Vikings give up 4.7 (3rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Ravens lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | BAL 27 at MIN 19 |
| 2021 · Wk 9 · OT | MIN 31 at BAL 34 |
| 2017 · Wk 7 | BAL 16 at MIN 24 |
| 2013 · Wk 14 | MIN 26 at BAL 29 |
| 2009 · Wk 6 | BAL 31 at MIN 33 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 9–8 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 4–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | -0.10#3 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 41%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 4.7#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 9%#11 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | -0.15#2 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 10%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.08#13 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 3.8#6 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 35%#2 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 45%#3 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 116#2 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 42#4 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 6.5#7 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 19#1 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.