2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 27–19; their low point was 37% at Q2 8:03. The game turned for good at Q2 0:30: L.Jackson pass short middle to J.Hill to BAL 37 for 12 yards (B.Cashman; A.Van Ginkel) (49% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:05, 14 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:05MINT.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD35% → 49%
- 2Q3 10:19BALT.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 0. M.Price to MIN 23 for 23 yards (K.Jackson; T.Simpson). FUMBLES (K.Jackson), RECOVERED by BAL-K.Jackson…68% → 81%
- 3Q1 10:40MINJ.McCarthy pass deep left to J.Nailor to BAL 4 for 62 yards (A.Gilman).37% → 47%
- 4Q2 14:03MINJ.McCarthy pass deep middle to J.Nailor to BAL 33 for 18 yards (M.Starks) [T.Jones].50% → 58%
- 5Q3 12:55BALJ.McCarthy pass deep middle intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by M.Humphrey at BAL 2. M.Humphrey ran ob at BAL 29 for 27 yards (D.Jackson;…53% → 60%
- ★Q2 0:30BALL.Jackson pass short middle to J.Hill to BAL 37 for 12 yards (B.Cashman; A.Van Ginkel).turning point49% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +2.9 EPA (4 catches for 75). J.Nailor led the Vikings at +15.3 EPA (5 catches for 124).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 17/29 | 176 | 1 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry67% | 20 | 56% | 75 | -2.4 | |
| L.Jackson100% | 9 | 25% | 36 | +1.0 | |
| K.Mitchell7% | 4 | 11% | 31 | +0.3 | |
| P.Ricard53% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +0.5 | |
| J.Hill27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Z.Flowers83% | 1 | 3% | 6 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers83% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 75 | +3.1 | |
| M.Andrews63% | 5 | 18% | 3 | 14 | 1 | +0.3 |
| D.Hopkins27% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 16 | -1.8 | |
| I.Likely56% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 17 | -2.3 | |
| D.Henry67% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 9 | -0.7 | |
| J.Hill27% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 12 | -0.3 | |
| R.Bateman61% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 10 | +2.4 | |
| C.Kolar43% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 23 | +0.6 |
Defense M.Humphrey 1 INT, M.Starks 1 INT, T.Jones 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 4/5 FG (long 44)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 20/42 | 248 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -9.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones71% | 9 | 50% | 47 | 1 | -0.1 |
| J.McCarthy100% | 5 | 28% | 48 | +0.0 | |
| J.Mason25% | 4 | 22% | 25 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 12 | 29% | 4 | 37 | -11.1 | |
| J.Addison95% | 11 | 27% | 3 | 35 | -8.0 | |
| A.Jones71% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 22 | -2.6 | |
| J.Nailor68% | 6 | 15% | 5 | 124 | 1 | +15.3 |
| A.Thielen14% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 16 | -1.4 | |
| T.Hockenson91% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 8 | -0.3 | |
| J.Mason25% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 |
Defense J.Allen 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Ravens give up 168 yards a game to wide receivers (30th), against a league average of 140. Vikings' wide receivers produce 129 (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Ravens give up 6.6 targets a game to tight ends (8th), against a league average of 7.3. Vikings' tight ends produce 5.5 (29th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Vikings succeed on 43% of plays (23rd) against a defense that allows 44% (17th).
The Ravens lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | BAL 27 at MIN 19 |
| 2021 · Wk 9 · OT | MIN 31 at BAL 34 |
| 2017 · Wk 7 | BAL 16 at MIN 24 |
| 2013 · Wk 14 | MIN 26 at BAL 29 |
| 2009 · Wk 6 | BAL 31 at MIN 33 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 9–8 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 4–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.