2025
Week 11 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 30–27 from as low as 8% (Q2 0:09, down 21–10). The Falcons had been 65% favorites at kickoff. Tied 27–27 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 5:13: R.Fitzgerald 28 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:15, 17 points for the Panthers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:15CARB.Young pass short left to T.McMillan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.39% → 56%
- 2Q4 3:05CARB.Young sacked at CAR 39 for -5 yards (L.London). CAR-B.Young was injured during the play.71% → 86%
- 3Q4 1:29CARB.Young pass short left to R.Dowdle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was…32% → 46%
- 4Q4 0:26ATLK.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to D.London (M.Jackson).51% → 65%
- 5Q1 9:23CARB.Young pass short middle to X.Legette to ATL 20 for 22 yards (A.Terrell).38% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
B.Young led the Panthers at +14.2 EPA (31 of 45 for 448). M.Jr. led the Falcons at +11.7 EPA (13 of 16 for 175).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 31/45 | 448 | 3 | 5 | +14.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle82% | 19 | 76% | 45 | -3.4 | |
| C.Hubbard19% | 4 | 16% | 21 | -0.7 | |
| B.Young100% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| T.Etienne5% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan86% | 12 | 27% | 8 | 130 | 2 | +10.3 |
| X.Legette55% | 8 | 18% | 4 | 83 | 1 | +7.0 |
| R.Dowdle82% | 7 | 16% | 5 | 55 | +1.3 | |
| J.Sanders48% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 22 | +1.0 | |
| J.Coker68% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 52 | +6.1 | |
| C.Hubbard19% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 7 | -1.3 | |
| T.Tremble57% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 54 | +3.2 | |
| B.Tremayne34% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 17 | +0.7 | |
| M.Evans38% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 28 | +1.4 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 3/3 FG (long 34)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.62% | 13/16 | 175 | +10.7 | |||
| K.Cousins38% | 6/14 | 48 | -3.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson85% | 23 | 82% | 104 | 2 | -2.0 |
| T.Allgeier21% | 3 | 11% | 10 | 1 | +1.0 |
| K.Cousins38% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.4 | |
| M.Jr.62% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London92% | 9 | 31% | 7 | 119 | +8.9 | |
| D.Mooney92% | 7 | 24% | 3 | 34 | -2.3 | |
| B.Robinson85% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 39 | +2.2 | |
| K.Pitts83% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 14 | +0.3 | |
| D.Sills56% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 11 | +0.6 | |
| T.Allgeier21% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 6 | -0.4 | |
| K.Hodge9% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense R.Harrison 1 sack, K.Elliss 1 sack, L.London 1 sack, B.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 2/2 FG (long 52)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Falcons take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (5th). Panthers get home on 5% (27th). League average is 7%.
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Panthers give up 130 yards a game to wide receivers (13th), against a league average of 140. Falcons' wide receivers produce 107 (28th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Falcons average -0.02 EPA per play (23rd). Panthers allow +0.07 (23rd). League average is +0.01.
The Falcons lead the series 33–22 since 1999. The Panthers have won the last 4. Sep 20, 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium: the Panthers won 34–3. Tua Tagovailoa started at quarterback for the Falcons and Bryce Young for the Panthers; Raheem Morris and Dave Canales coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | CAR 34 at ATL 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 · OT | CAR 30 at ATL 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | ATL 0 at CAR 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 · OT | CAR 44 at ATL 38 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | ATL 38 at CAR 20 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | LWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.