2025
Week 11 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 21–19 and were favored the whole way, never below 53%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:01, 32 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:01LAJ.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short68% → 100%
- 2Q1 10:59LAS.Darnold pass short left intended for C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by K.Kinchens at SEA 34. K.Kinchens pushed ob at SEA 3 for 31 yards (S.Darnold).53% → 72%
- 3Q3 1:15LAS.Darnold pass deep middle intended for E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by K.Kinchens at SEA 47. K.Kinchens to SEA 25 for 22 yards (A.Lucas).63% → 79%
- 4Q3 14:09SEAM.Stafford pass short middle to P.Nacua to SEA 28 for 7 yards (C.Bryant). FUMBLES (C.Bryant), RECOVERED by SEA-D.Thomas at SEA 26. D.Thomas to SEA…21% → 32%
- 5Q1 12:12SEAM.Stafford pass incomplete short left to T.Higbee.35% → 45%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Barner led the Seahawks at +3.8 EPA (10 catches for 70). K.Williams led the Rams at +3.6 EPA (12 carries for 91).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 29/44 | 279 | 4 | -13.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III51% | 16 | 46% | 67 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Z.Charbonnet43% | 11 | 31% | 37 | -1.9 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 2 | 6% | 11 | +1.1 | |
| G.Holani2% | 2 | 6% | 6 | -1.0 | |
| A.Barner87% | 2 | 6% | 1 | +0.1 | |
| R.Shaheed54% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.6 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba83% | 1 | 3% | 11 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba83% | 12 | 29% | 9 | 105 | +0.3 | |
| A.Barner87% | 11 | 26% | 10 | 70 | +3.7 | |
| C.Kupp81% | 7 | 17% | 3 | 23 | -8.2 | |
| R.Shaheed54% | 5 | 12% | 2 | 27 | -0.3 | |
| K.III51% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 44 | +2.8 | |
| Z.Charbonnet43% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 10 | +1.8 | |
| E.Arroyo37% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -11.6 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking J.Myers 4/5 FG (long 57)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 15/28 | 130 | 2 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams69% | 12 | 55% | 91 | 1 | +4.5 |
| B.Corum31% | 8 | 36% | 10 | -3.7 | |
| P.Nacua67% | 2 | 9% | 18 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Adams86% | 8 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| P.Nacua67% | 8 | 30% | 7 | 75 | +0.2 | |
| T.Higbee39% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 23 | -2.5 | |
| C.Parkinson69% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 14 | 1 | +1.6 |
| K.Williams69% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -0.9 | |
| X.Smith12% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 8 | +1.3 | |
| B.Corum31% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -5 | -2.3 | |
| J.Whittington49% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense K.Kinchens 2 INT, D.Williams 1 INT, C.Durant 1 INT
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Seahawks give up 63 yards a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 53. Rams' tight ends produce 69 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Rams send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Seahawks
Rams convert 39% of third downs (21st). Seahawks allow 34% (1st).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Rams average +0.14 EPA per play (1st). Seahawks allow -0.12 (2nd). League average is +0.01.
The Seahawks lead the series 28–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. Jan 25, 2026, at Lumen Field: the Seahawks won 31–27. Sam Darnold started at quarterback for the Seahawks and Matthew Stafford for the Rams; Mike Macdonald and Sean McVay coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 21 · playoffs | LA 27 at SEA 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 · OT | LA 37 at SEA 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | SEA 19 at LA 21 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | SEA 30 at LA 25 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 · OT | LA 26 at SEA 20 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 12–5 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 5–0 |
| Home | 6–2 | 7–1 |
| Away | 8–1 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWLLW |
| Streak | Won 7 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.