2025
Week 12 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Raiders offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Raiders, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Browns won 24–10; their low point was 37% at Q1 12:51. The Raiders had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 9:27: A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 29 G.Larvadain to LV 27 for 44 yards (A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-A.Cole, Tripping, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27 (47% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 0:58, 14 points for the Browns.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:58CLEG.Smith pass incomplete deep right to T.Tucker.76% → 91%
- 2Q1 1:43CLES.Sanders pass deep right to I.Bond to LV 2 for 52 yards (D.Holmes) [M.Crosby].63% → 77%
- 3Q3 2:45LVG.Smith pass deep middle to T.Lockett to CLE 29 for 33 yards (T.Campbell).17% → 27%
- 4Q2 11:28LVS.Sanders pass short left intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by C.Snowden [A.Butler] at CLE 44. C.Snowden to CLE 26 for 18 yards (J.Conklin; S.Sanders).20% → 29%
- 5Q1 9:27CLEA.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 29 G.Larvadain to LV 27 for 44 yards (A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-A.Cole, Tripping, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.turning point47% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
I.Bond led the Browns at +4.4 EPA (2 catches for 58). T.Lockett led the Raiders at +4.2 EPA (4 catches for 62).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Sanders90% | 11/20 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins49% | 16 | 59% | 47 | 2 | -2.0 |
| D.Sampson37% | 7 | 26% | 23 | -3.2 | |
| J.Ford16% | 1 | 4% | -3 | -1.1 | |
| M.Corley25% | 1 | 4% | -6 | -1.3 | |
| H.Jr.90% | 1 | 4% | 4 | 0.0 | |
| S.Sanders90% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Jr.90% | 6 | 33% | 4 | 40 | +0.9 | |
| J.Jeudy65% | 3 | 17% | 1 | 39 | -9.4 | |
| C.Tillman53% | 3 | 17% | 1 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| D.Sampson37% | 3 | 17% | 2 | 59 | 1 | +6.1 |
| I.Bond29% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 58 | +4.4 | |
| M.Corley25% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.6 |
Defense M.Garrett 3 sacks, M.Collins 2.5 sacks, D.Bush 1 sack, C.Thomas 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 1/1 FG (long 53)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 30/44 | 285 | 1 | 10 | -20.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty81% | 17 | 81% | 50 | -7.7 | |
| G.Smith100% | 3 | 14% | 8 | -0.4 | |
| R.Mostert19% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tucker95% | 10 | 24% | 3 | 28 | -8.6 | |
| B.Bowers96% | 9 | 21% | 6 | 55 | +0.2 | |
| A.Jeanty81% | 8 | 19% | 8 | 58 | 1 | +4.7 |
| T.Lockett76% | 5 | 12% | 4 | 62 | +4.2 | |
| I.Thomas56% | 4 | 10% | 4 | 36 | +0.8 | |
| R.Mostert19% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 18 | -0.8 | |
| D.Jr.38% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +1.2 | |
| M.Mayer16% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 14 | +0.3 |
Defense C.Snowden 1 INT, M.Koonce 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 1/2 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Browns give up 52 yards a game to tight ends (16th), against a league average of 53. Raiders' tight ends produce 68 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Browns give up 110 yards a game to wide receivers (1st), against a league average of 140. Raiders' wide receivers produce 100 (30th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Raiders create explosive plays on 7% of snaps (31st). Browns give them up at 9% (13th).
The Raiders lead the series 8–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 | CLE 24 at LV 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | CLE 16 at LV 20 |
| 2021 · Wk 15 | LV 16 at CLE 14 |
| 2020 · Wk 8 | LV 16 at CLE 6 |
| 2018 · Wk 4 · OT | CLE 42 at LV 45 |
2025 records
| Browns | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 3–14 |
| Division | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 0–5 |
| Home | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| Away | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 16.4 – 22.3 | 14.2 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.22#32 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 38%#30 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#31 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#31 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#29 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#32 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.30#32 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#32 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#28 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#28 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#30 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.2#3 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.