2025
Week 12 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Lions offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Lions, 17 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 34–27 from as low as 14% (Q4 3:11, down 27–24). Tied 27–27 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 9:42: J.Bates extra point is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 10:50, 25 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:50NYGJ.Winston pass short right intended for W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Harper at NYG 45. T.Harper to NYG 45 for no gain (W.Robinson).43% → 68%
- 2Q4 5:36NYGJ.Winston pass deep left to T.Johnson to DET 18 for 39 yards (T.Harper).62% → 82%
- 3Q4 1:12DETJ.Goff pass short middle to J.Gibbs to NYG 41 for 12 yards (J.Holland). ** Injury Update: NYG-A.Phillips has returned to the game. PENALTY on…37% → 54%
- 4Q4 0:33DETJ.Bates 59 yard field goal is GOOD30% → 46%
- 5Q4 8:10NYGJ.Winston pass deep left to I.Hodgins to NYG 38 for 30 yards (D.Reed).55% → 69%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
J.Winston led the Giants at +16.0 EPA (18 of 36 for 366). J.Gibbs led the Lions at +13.5 EPA (15 carries for 219).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Winston100% | 18/36 | 366 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +10.5 |
| G.Olszewski10% | 1/1 | 33 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jr.71% | 20 | 51% | 62 | -3.2 | |
| D.Singletary30% | 14 | 36% | 47 | -3.5 | |
| J.Winston100% | 4 | 10% | 13 | +2.3 | |
| W.Robinson83% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson83% | 14 | 41% | 9 | 156 | 1 | +6.5 |
| I.Hodgins66% | 6 | 18% | 2 | 42 | 1 | +1.2 |
| T.Johnson78% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 77 | +3.1 | |
| T.Jr.71% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 68 | +5.0 | |
| D.Slayton63% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 23 | +1.2 | |
| D.Bellinger62% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| J.Winston100% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 33 | 1 | +3.2 |
Defense D.Alexander 2 sacks, J.Holland 1 INT, R.Nunez-Roches 1 sack · Kicking Y.Koo 2/2 FG (long 44)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 28/42 | 279 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs74% | 15 | 75% | 219 | 2 | +15.0 |
| D.Montgomery34% | 5 | 25% | 18 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown97% | 13 | 34% | 9 | 149 | 1 | +5.8 |
| J.Gibbs74% | 12 | 32% | 11 | 45 | 1 | -1.4 |
| B.Wright88% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 29 | +0.8 | |
| D.Montgomery34% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 19 | -0.2 | |
| J.Williams97% | 3 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -3.1 | |
| K.Raymond40% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 37 | +1.4 | |
| I.TeSlaa41% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense T.Harper 1 INT, A.Hutchinson 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 2/2 FG (long 59)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Lions average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Giants allow 5.4 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Giants are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Lions send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Giants give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (9th), against a league average of 7.3. Lions' tight ends produce 5.4 (31st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Lions succeed on 45% of plays (12th) against a defense that allows 47% (26th).
The Lions lead the series 7–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 · OT | NYG 27 at DET 34 |
| 2022 · Wk 11 | DET 31 at NYG 18 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | NYG 26 at DET 31 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | DET 24 at NYG 10 |
| 2016 · Wk 15 | DET 6 at NYG 17 |
2025 records
| Giants | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–13 | 9–8 |
| Division | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Away | 1–8 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | WLLLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.8 | 28.3 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#6 | +0.08#25 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#12 | 47%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 6.0#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#8 | 12%#32 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#4 | +0.02#16 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#16 | +0.13#32 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 5.4#32 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 40%#14 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#8 | 63%#23 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#3 | 152#23 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#26 | 47#10 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.4#31 | 6.7#9 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#4 | 31#19 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.