2025
Week 12 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Titans offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Titans, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 30–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 72%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:11, 8 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:11SEAS.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 91%
- 2Q1 6:54SEAC.Ward sacked at SEA 4 for -1 yards (P.O'Connell).72% → 78%
- 3Q2 12:55SEAJ.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 13 R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 20 yards (J.Chestnut).83% → 88%
- 4Q1 1:08TENC.Ward pass short right to C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 35 for 25 yards (J.Jobe; C.Bryant).14% → 19%
- 5Q1 4:31SEAS.Darnold pass short right to A.Barner to TEN 34 for 13 yards (C.Barton; C.Gray).80% → 84%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +13.8 EPA (8 catches for 167). C.Ward led the Titans at +8.7 EPA (28 of 42 for 256).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 16/26 | 244 | 2 | 1 | +9.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III62% | 11 | 55% | 71 | +0.5 | |
| Z.Charbonnet31% | 6 | 30% | 35 | 1 | +3.4 |
| S.Darnold100% | 1 | 5% | -1 | -1.6 | |
| R.Shaheed56% | 1 | 5% | 5 | +0.1 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba79% | 1 | 5% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba79% | 10 | 40% | 8 | 167 | 2 | +13.9 |
| C.Kupp77% | 4 | 16% | 2 | 24 | -0.8 | |
| K.III62% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 30 | -0.3 | |
| A.Barner79% | 4 | 16% | 2 | 18 | +0.3 | |
| R.Shaheed56% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| E.Arroyo38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.3 |
Defense L.Williams 1 sack, P.O'Connell 1 sack, D.Hall 1 sack, B.II 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 3/3 FG (long 47)
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 28/42 | 256 | 1 | 4 | +2.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard51% | 11 | 50% | 20 | -5.4 | |
| C.Ward100% | 6 | 27% | 37 | 1 | +6.5 |
| T.Spears43% | 3 | 14% | 4 | -1.5 | |
| J.Chestnut7% | 2 | 9% | 3 | -2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Helm63% | 7 | 18% | 6 | 51 | 0.0 | |
| C.Dike80% | 7 | 18% | 5 | 44 | 1 | +1.0 |
| X.Restrepo25% | 6 | 16% | 2 | 26 | +1.6 | |
| T.Pollard51% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 21 | -1.1 | |
| T.Spears43% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 21 | +0.5 | |
| C.Okonkwo63% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 40 | +2.3 | |
| J.Proche45% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 42 | +5.0 | |
| V.Jefferson91% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +2.6 |
Defense A.Key 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 1/1 FG (long 22)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Seahawks give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 7.3. Titans' tight ends produce 8.2 (8th).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Titans send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Seahawks
Titans convert 33% of third downs (32nd). Seahawks allow 34% (1st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Titans create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (26th). Seahawks give them up at 8% (2nd).
The Seahawks lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 | SEA 30 at TEN 24 |
| 2023 · Wk 16 | SEA 20 at TEN 17 |
| 2021 · Wk 2 · OT | TEN 33 at SEA 30 |
| 2017 · Wk 3 | SEA 27 at TEN 33 |
| 2013 · Wk 6 | TEN 13 at SEA 20 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 3–14 |
| Division | 4–2 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–2 | 1–8 |
| Away | 8–1 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WLWLL |
| Streak | Won 7 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 16.7 – 28.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TEN off | Favors TEN · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.16#30 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#30 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#31 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#26 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#19 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#32 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#14 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#27 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#13 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#8 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#19 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Titans: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.