2025
Week 13 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Steelers, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 26–7; their low point was 38% at Q2 8:09. The game turned for good at Q3 14:54: S.A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (J.Bosa). FUMBLES (J.Bosa) [J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-C.Benford at PIT 17. C.Benford for 17 yards,… (44% → 70%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 14:54BUFS.A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (J.Bosa). FUMBLES (J.Bosa) [J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-C.Benford at PIT 17. C.Benford for 17 yards,…turning point44% → 70%
- 2Q2 10:40PITJ.Cook left end to BUF 42 for -3 yards (N.Herbig). FUMBLES (N.Herbig), touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by PIT-P.Queen at BUF 39.38% → 50%
- 3Q1 11:17PITJ.Allen pass short right intended for G.Davis INTERCEPTED by B.Echols at PIT 35. B.Echols to PIT 35 for no gain (G.Davis).39% → 48%
- 4Q2 8:12PITS.J.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-D.Metcalf, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.54% → 62%
- 5Q2 0:55PITM.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD48% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Allen led the Bills at +10.6 EPA (15 of 23 for 123). D.Metcalf led the Steelers at +5.0 EPA (3 catches for 32).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 15/23 | 123 | 1 | 1 | +5.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook61% | 32 | 63% | 144 | -7.9 | |
| R.Davis18% | 9 | 18% | 62 | +1.9 | |
| J.Allen100% | 8 | 16% | 38 | 1 | +5.2 |
| T.Johnson27% | 2 | 4% | 5 | +2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Johnson27% | 5 | 22% | 3 | 20 | +0.1 | |
| D.Knox72% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 28 | +1.6 | |
| K.Shakir49% | 4 | 17% | 1 | 5 | -2.4 | |
| J.Cook61% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 33 | +3.1 | |
| K.Coleman45% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 9 | 1 | +4.4 |
| G.Davis58% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 5 | -4.5 | |
| B.Cooks23% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +2.3 | |
| J.Hawes70% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +0.8 |
Defense C.Benford 1 INT, J.Bosa 1 sack · Kicking M.Prater 2/2 FG (long 37)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers84% | 10/21 | 117 | 1 | -9.6 | ||
| M.Rudolph16% | 0/3 | 0 | 1 | -2.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren56% | 10 | 56% | 35 | 1 | +0.6 |
| K.Gainwell42% | 5 | 28% | 20 | -4.5 | |
| K.Johnson7% | 2 | 11% | 3 | -0.4 | |
| A.Rodgers84% | 1 | 6% | 0 | -2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf86% | 5 | 23% | 3 | 32 | +5.0 | |
| J.Warren56% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 9 | -0.7 | |
| D.Washington79% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 45 | -1.1 | |
| K.Gainwell42% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 25 | +0.1 | |
| J.Smith53% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 6 | -0.8 | |
| C.III49% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -3.2 | |
| B.Skowronek9% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| R.Wilson44% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Defense B.Echols 1 INT
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Steelers' run game is 7th in EPA per carry (0.00). Bills allow +0.04 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bills give up 122 yards a game to wide receivers (7th), against a league average of 140. Steelers' wide receivers produce 101 (29th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Steelers average 0.00 EPA per play (18th). Bills allow -0.01 (13th). League average is +0.01.
The Steelers lead the series 7–6 since 1999. The Bills have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | BUF 26 at PIT 7 |
| 2023 · Wk 19 · playoffs | PIT 17 at BUF 31 |
| 2022 · Wk 5 | PIT 3 at BUF 38 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | PIT 23 at BUF 16 |
| 2020 · Wk 14 | PIT 15 at BUF 26 |
2025 records
| Bills | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 10–7 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Away | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | 0.00#18 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#19 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#21 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#23 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#21 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#7 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#12 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 101#29 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#7 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#4 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#3 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.