2025
Week 13 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Chargers offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 17 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 31–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 70%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 14:13, 11 points for the Chargers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 14:13LACK.Vidal left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.75% → 87%
- 2Q2 1:54LVG.Smith pass short middle to B.Bowers for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 27%
- 3Q2 6:37LVK.Vidal left guard to LV 18 for no gain (D.White; A.Butler).6% → 12%
- 4Q2 8:39LVJ.Herbert pass short left intended for L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by K.Kelly at LV 2. K.Kelly ran ob at LV 2 for no gain.5% → 10%
- 5Q2 7:54LACG.Smith pass deep left intended for D.Thornton INTERCEPTED by T.Jefferson (D.Jackson) at LV 27. T.Jefferson ran ob at LV 27 for no gain.91% → 95%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Bowers led the Raiders at +8.2 EPA (4 catches for 63). J.Herbert led the Chargers at +6.4 EPA (15 of 20 for 151).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 18/23 | 165 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty96% | 15 | 83% | 31 | -9.5 | |
| G.Smith100% | 2 | 11% | -6 | -1.3 | |
| R.Mostert4% | 1 | 6% | 6 | -2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty96% | 8 | 36% | 6 | 30 | -0.5 | |
| B.Bowers98% | 4 | 18% | 4 | 63 | 2 | +8.2 |
| T.Tucker96% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 20 | +0.8 | |
| J.Bech56% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 22 | +0.2 | |
| D.Jr.29% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 11 | -2.0 | |
| T.Lockett52% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 11 | +1.8 | |
| I.Thomas56% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 |
Defense M.Crosby 2 sacks, K.Kelly 1 INT, M.Koonce 1 sack
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert85% | 15/20 | 151 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +7.3 |
| T.Lance15% | 1/1 | 9 | +0.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Vidal76% | 25 | 58% | 126 | 1 | -0.8 |
| J.Patterson22% | 11 | 26% | 54 | 1 | +2.8 |
| T.Lance15% | 4 | 9% | 4 | -2.3 | |
| J.Herbert85% | 3 | 7% | 8 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.McConkey76% | 6 | 29% | 4 | 39 | 1 | -1.9 |
| K.Allen60% | 5 | 24% | 4 | 30 | +3.8 | |
| T.Harris51% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 30 | +3.1 | |
| Q.Johnston67% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 23 | 1 | +4.4 |
| O.II70% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 27 | +1.9 | |
| K.Vidal76% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 11 | +0.8 |
Defense T.Tuipulotu 2 sacks, T.Jefferson 1 INT, B.Dupree 1 sack, K.Mack 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Dicker 1/1 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Chargers
Chargers convert 45% of third downs (5th). Raiders allow 47% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Raiders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.56 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Raiders give up 5.7 targets a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 7.3. Chargers' tight ends produce 5.8 (26th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Chargers succeed on 43% of plays (22nd) against a defense that allows 45% (21st).
The Chargers lead the series 33–22 since 1999. Sep 20, 2026, at SoFi Stadium: the Raiders won 26–14. Justin Herbert started at quarterback for the Chargers and Kirk Cousins for the Raiders; Jim Harbaugh and Klint Kubliak coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | LV 26 at LAC 14 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | LV 14 at LAC 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | LAC 20 at LV 9 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | LAC 34 at LV 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | LV 10 at LAC 22 |
2025 records
| Raiders | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 11–6 |
| Division | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–7 | 6–3 |
| Away | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 14.2 – 25.4 | 21.6 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#25 | +0.03#19 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#22 | 45%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#22 | 5.2#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 8%#7 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#26 | +0.08#22 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 7%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#23 | -0.07#14 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#25 | 4.0#10 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#5 | 47%#31 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#29 | 59%#18 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#10 | 147#21 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#18 | 39#3 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 5.7#3 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#27 | 28#10 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.