2025
Week 13 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsRams defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Panthers, 20 for Rams. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 31–28 from as low as 11% (Q1 11:30, down 7–0). The Rams had been 79% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:34: M.Stafford sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (D.Brown). FUMBLES (D.Brown) [D.Brown], RECOVERED by CAR-D.Wonnum at CAR 30. D.Wonnum to CAR 49 for 19… (43% → 72%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 6:43, 30 points for the Panthers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:43CARB.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 50%
- 2Q4 2:34CARM.Stafford sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (D.Brown). FUMBLES (D.Brown) [D.Brown], RECOVERED by CAR-D.Wonnum at CAR 30. D.Wonnum to CAR 49 for 19…turning point43% → 72%
- 3Q3 8:54CARB.Young pass deep right to J.Coker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 40%
- 4Q1 1:20CARM.Stafford pass short left intended for P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by M.Jackson at LA 48. M.Jackson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.22% → 41%
- 5Q2 4:32LAM.Stafford pass deep left to X.Smith pushed ob at CAR 18 for 51 yards (N.Scott).63% → 76%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Adams led the Rams at +7.1 EPA (4 catches for 58). B.Young led the Panthers at +15.1 EPA (15 of 20 for 206).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 18/28 | 243 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams67% | 13 | 62% | 72 | 1 | +4.2 |
| B.Corum33% | 7 | 33% | 81 | 1 | +6.3 |
| M.Stafford100% | 1 | 5% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua73% | 9 | 33% | 6 | 72 | -2.7 | |
| D.Adams75% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 58 | 2 | +7.1 |
| C.Parkinson67% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 27 | -3.8 | |
| X.Smith38% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 82 | +5.4 | |
| T.Ferguson35% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| K.Williams67% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| D.Allen38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.5 | |
| J.Whittington35% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense B.Young 1 sack, B.Fiske 1 sack
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 15/20 | 206 | 3 | 2 | +14.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle42% | 18 | 45% | 58 | -4.7 | |
| C.Hubbard59% | 17 | 43% | 83 | +3.6 | |
| B.Young100% | 5 | 13% | 23 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Coker55% | 6 | 30% | 4 | 74 | 1 | +7.6 |
| M.Evans53% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 20 | +1.1 | |
| R.Dowdle42% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 21 | +0.7 | |
| C.Hubbard59% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 41 | 1 | +4.3 |
| T.Tremble56% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 2 | -2.1 | |
| X.Legette67% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 1 | -0.8 | |
| T.McMillan73% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 43 | 1 | +5.7 |
| T.Etienne8% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 |
Defense M.Jackson 1 INT, N.Scott 1 INT, D.Brown 1 sack, L.Ransom 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/1 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Rams give up 39 yards a game to running backs (26th), against a league average of 32. Panthers' running backs produce 31 (14th).
Deep middle is open
Rams are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.60 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Rams give up 45 yards a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 53. Panthers' tight ends produce 37 (30th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Panthers succeed on 43% of plays (18th) against a defense that allows 43% (12th).
The Panthers lead the series 9–8 since 1999. Jan 10, 2026, at Bank of America Stadium: the Rams won 34–31. Bryce Young started at quarterback for the Panthers and Matthew Stafford for the Rams; Dave Canales and Sean McVay coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 19 · playoffs | LA 34 at CAR 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | LA 28 at CAR 31 |
| 2022 · Wk 6 | CAR 10 at LA 24 |
| 2019 · Wk 1 | LA 30 at CAR 27 |
| 2016 · Wk 9 | CAR 13 at LA 10 |
2025 records
| Rams | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 7–1 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WWLLW | WLWLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 30.5 – 20.4 | 18.3 – 22.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors LA | LA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#26 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#18 | 43%#12 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#26 | 5.3#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#24 | 8%#9 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#25 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#17 | -0.09#7 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#14 | 4.0#11 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#25 | 38%#10 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#20 | 57%#13 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 131#19 | 159#25 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#30 | 45#7 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#27 | 7.5#19 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 39#26 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Rams: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.