2025
Week 13 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 17 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 26–0 and were favored the whole way, never below 77%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:14, 15 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 3:14SEAM.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by E.Jones [D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.79% → 94%
- 2Q2 5:26MINS.Darnold sacked at SEA 15 for -7 yards (D.Turner). FUMBLES (D.Turner) [D.Turner], RECOVERED by MIN-J.Redmond at SEA 13.12% → 23%
- 3Q1 6:47MINS.Darnold sacked at SEA 31 for -13 yards (E.Wilson).13% → 21%
- 4Q1 5:58SEAM.Dickson punts 56 yards to MIN 13, downed by SEA-N.Pritchett.79% → 86%
- 5Q1 2:36SEAM.Dickson punts 48 yards to MIN 37, fair catch by M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-B.Richter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 37.79% → 85%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Hockenson led the Vikings at +3.4 EPA (6 catches for 59). A.Barner led the Seahawks at +5.0 EPA (4 catches for 35).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Brosmer100% | 19/30 | 126 | 4 | 4 | -29.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones37% | 6 | 38% | 3 | -3.4 | |
| J.Mason29% | 6 | 38% | 47 | +0.0 | |
| Z.Scott19% | 3 | 19% | 17 | +0.1 | |
| M.Brosmer100% | 1 | 6% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Addison92% | 10 | 34% | 5 | 36 | -2.1 | |
| T.Hockenson79% | 6 | 21% | 6 | 59 | +3.4 | |
| J.Jefferson96% | 6 | 21% | 2 | 4 | -7.3 | |
| A.Jones37% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 22 | -3.1 | |
| J.Nailor69% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.7 | |
| J.Mason29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 | |
| Z.Scott19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 |
Defense D.Turner 2 sacks, E.Wilson 1 sack, A.Ginkel 1 sack
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold96% | 14/26 | 128 | 4 | -8.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Charbonnet39% | 14 | 44% | 52 | 1 | +0.7 |
| K.III55% | 13 | 41% | 56 | -1.7 | |
| M.Gaskin | 3 | 9% | 6 | -1.5 | |
| R.Shaheed48% | 1 | 3% | 9 | -0.4 | |
| A.Barner85% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Barner85% | 5 | 22% | 4 | 35 | +4.5 | |
| C.Kupp76% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 24 | +0.1 | |
| K.III55% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 18 | +0.7 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba82% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 23 | +1.1 | |
| R.Shaheed48% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 7 | -1.2 | |
| E.Arroyo37% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -3.4 | |
| C.White21% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 21 | +2.9 |
Defense E.Jones 2 INT, R.Woolen 1 INT, C.Bryant 1 INT, D.Lawrence 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 4/4 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Vikings give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (2nd), against a league average of 140. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 168 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.35 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Vikings give up 6.5 targets a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 7.3. Seahawks' tight ends produce 5.5 (30th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Seahawks succeed on 46% of plays (8th) against a defense that allows 41% (5th).
The Seahawks lead the series 10–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | MIN 0 at SEA 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | MIN 27 at SEA 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 3 | SEA 17 at MIN 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 5 | MIN 26 at SEA 27 |
| 2019 · Wk 13 | MIN 30 at SEA 37 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Away | 5–4 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 5 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | -0.10#3 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 41%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 4.7#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 9%#11 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | -0.15#2 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 10%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.08#13 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 3.8#6 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 35%#2 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 45%#3 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 116#2 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 42#4 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 6.5#7 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 19#1 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.