2025
Week 15 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 41–34; their low point was 30% at Q2 0:30. The game turned for good at Q3 4:37: M.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams to LA 47 for 15 yards (A.Maddox) (47% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 8:24, 23 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:24DETM.Stafford pass short right intended for C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by A.Hutchinson at DET 25. A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (C.Parkinson).19% → 42%
- 2Q2 0:36DETJ.Goff pass deep middle to J.Williams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [B.Fiske].55% → 70%
- 3Q3 2:32LAM.Stafford pass deep right to C.Parkinson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play…58% → 72%
- 4Q2 6:19DETJ.Goff pass short right to A.St. Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 43%
- 5Q2 0:18LAM.Stafford pass deep right to P.Nacua pushed ob at DET 19 for 37 yards (A.Maddox).32% → 42%
- ★Q3 4:37LAM.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams to LA 47 for 15 yards (A.Maddox).turning point47% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Goff led the Lions at +12.8 EPA (25 of 41 for 338). P.Nacua led the Rams at +15.6 EPA (9 catches for 181).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 25/41 | 338 | 3 | 1 | +12.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs81% | 13 | 65% | 38 | -4.5 | |
| D.Montgomery28% | 7 | 35% | 32 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown95% | 18 | 47% | 13 | 164 | 2 | +10.6 |
| J.Williams91% | 10 | 26% | 7 | 134 | 1 | +8.7 |
| J.Gibbs81% | 7 | 18% | 4 | 20 | -1.9 | |
| K.Raymond17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 20 | +1.3 | |
| D.Montgomery28% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| I.TeSlaa62% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 |
Defense A.Hutchinson 1 sack and 1 INT, R.Lopez 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 2/3 FG (long 48)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 24/38 | 368 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +8.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams54% | 15 | 52% | 78 | 2 | +1.6 |
| B.Corum46% | 11 | 38% | 71 | 1 | +4.8 |
| P.Nacua56% | 2 | 7% | 8 | -0.3 | |
| M.Stafford100% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua56% | 11 | 29% | 9 | 181 | +15.8 | |
| D.Adams46% | 9 | 24% | 4 | 71 | +1.2 | |
| C.Parkinson86% | 7 | 18% | 5 | 75 | 2 | -1.8 |
| D.Allen75% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 16 | +0.2 | |
| T.Atwell6% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 9 | -1.2 | |
| T.Ferguson78% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 6 | -1.0 | |
| K.Williams54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +0.3 | |
| J.Whittington6% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| K.Mumpfield44% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense K.Turner 1 sack · Kicking H.Mevis 2/2 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Rams average 4.9 yards per carry (2nd). Lions allow 4.4 (24th).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Rams send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Lions give up 25 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 21 (30th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Rams succeed on 51% of plays (1st) against a defense that allows 42% (9th).
The series is even at 7–7 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | DET 34 at LA 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 · OT | LA 20 at DET 26 |
| 2023 · Wk 19 · playoffs | LA 23 at DET 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 7 | DET 19 at LA 28 |
| 2018 · Wk 13 | LA 30 at DET 16 |
2025 records
| Lions | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 12–5 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 5–3 | 7–1 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | WWLLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.