2025
Week 16 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 45–21; their low point was 48% at Q2 2:24. The game turned for good at Q2 2:00: J.Burrow pass short middle to J.Chase to MIA 38 for 11 yards (J.Brooks; J.Marshall) (49% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 2:35, 12 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 2:35MIAD.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26% → 37%
- 2Q2 1:43CINJ.Burrow pass short middle to D.Sample pushed ob at MIA 11 for 27 yards (J.Brooks) [T.Dodson].50% → 61%
- 3Q2 2:30MIAM.Washington right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.43% → 52%
- 4Q1 12:57MIAJ.Burrow sacked at CIN 32 for -7 yards (Z.Sieler).37% → 46%
- 5Q2 0:48MIAJ.Bailey punts 51 yards to CIN 4, downed by MIA-D.Eskridge.28% → 36%
- ★Q2 2:00CINJ.Burrow pass short middle to J.Chase to MIA 38 for 11 yards (J.Brooks; J.Marshall).turning point49% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Burrow led the Bengals at +22.6 EPA (25 of 32 for 309). D.Waller led the Dolphins at +4.3 EPA (3 catches for 40).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow90% | 25/32 | 309 | 4 | 2 | +20.6 | |
| J.Flacco10% | 1/1 | 4 | -1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown61% | 12 | 46% | 66 | 1 | +2.3 |
| S.Perine39% | 7 | 27% | 25 | 1 | +1.8 |
| T.Brooks10% | 4 | 15% | 7 | -1.7 | |
| J.Burrow90% | 2 | 8% | 6 | +2.0 | |
| K.Williams7% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase87% | 11 | 35% | 9 | 109 | +6.2 | |
| M.Gesicki48% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 35 | 1 | +4.5 |
| C.Brown61% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 43 | 2 | +6.1 |
| S.Perine39% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 16 | +0.7 | |
| T.Higgins62% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 53 | 1 | +5.1 |
| D.Sample66% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 31 | +2.7 | |
| T.Hudson25% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| A.Iosivas51% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 21 | +1.6 | |
| M.Tinsley36% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| C.Grandy8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Davis 1 INT, B.Carter 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 45)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Ewers100% | 20/30 | 260 | 2 | +4.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane71% | 15 | 54% | 81 | 1 | -1.1 |
| J.Wright31% | 9 | 32% | 35 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Q.Ewers100% | 2 | 7% | 5 | -3.6 | |
| M.Washington53% | 1 | 4% | 9 | 1 | +2.5 |
| O.II5% | 1 | 4% | -1 | -2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle71% | 9 | 31% | 5 | 72 | -1.8 | |
| D.Waller49% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 40 | +4.3 | |
| T.Jr.36% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 32 | -2.8 | |
| G.Dulcich29% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 46 | -1.2 | |
| D.Achane71% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 9 | -1.5 | |
| J.Wright31% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 18 | +1.6 | |
| C.Jr.53% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.8 | |
| A.Ingold31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +1.1 | |
| M.Washington53% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 23 | +1.8 |
Defense Z.Sieler 1 sack, C.Robinson 0.5 sacks, K.Grant 0.5 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Dolphins average 4.8 yards per carry (3rd). Bengals allow 5.2 (31st).
Deep left is open
Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Dolphins' wide receivers produce 110 (26th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Dolphins succeed on 42% of plays (26th) against a defense that allows 48% (28th).
The Bengals lead the series 7–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. Oct 11, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium: the Bengals won 31–24. Malik Willis started at quarterback for the Dolphins and Joe Burrow for the Bengals; Jeff Hafley and Zac Taylor coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | CIN 31 at MIA 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | CIN 45 at MIA 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | MIA 15 at CIN 27 |
| 2020 · Wk 13 | CIN 7 at MIA 19 |
| 2019 · Wk 16 · OT | CIN 35 at MIA 38 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 7–10 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Home | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Away | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | +0.13#29 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 48%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 12%#30 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | +0.16#28 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | +0.06#31 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 5.2#31 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 44%#26 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 65%#25 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 116#3 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 85#32 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 9.7#32 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 43#29 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.