2025
Week 16 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevsRams defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 20 for Rams. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 38–37 from as low as 1% (Q4 8:22, down 30–14). Tied 30–30 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 3:13: TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. S.Darnold pass to E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:11, 25 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:11SEAH.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right43% → 69%
- 2Q3 6:44LAS.Darnold pass short left intended for R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by J.Wallace at LA 43. J.Wallace to SEA 1 for 56 yards (K.Walker).54% → 77%
- 3Q4 2:41LAM.Stafford pass deep left to T.Ferguson to SEA 46 for 27 yards (T.Okada). PENALTY on SEA-T.Okada, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.48% → 68%
- 4Q3 13:06SEAK.Walker right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.37% → 56%
- 5Q3 12:07LAM.Stafford pass deep middle to X.Smith to SEA 24 for 48 yards (D.Witherspoon).40% → 59%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
M.Stafford led the Rams at +25.6 EPA (29 of 49 for 457). K.III led the Seahawks at +7.2 EPA (11 carries for 100).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 29/49 | 457 | 3 | +26.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams71% | 23 | 59% | 70 | -3.2 | |
| B.Corum29% | 14 | 36% | 48 | 1 | -0.9 |
| M.Stafford100% | 2 | 5% | 6 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua78% | 16 | 33% | 12 | 225 | 2 | +17.3 |
| K.Mumpfield46% | 8 | 17% | 3 | 40 | -0.8 | |
| K.Williams71% | 6 | 13% | 3 | 15 | -1.0 | |
| D.Allen65% | 5 | 10% | 2 | 34 | -1.0 | |
| C.Parkinson86% | 4 | 8% | 2 | 21 | +0.6 | |
| T.Ferguson76% | 4 | 8% | 3 | 33 | 1 | +3.0 |
| X.Smith24% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 57 | +6.1 | |
| B.Corum29% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 13 | -0.1 | |
| J.Whittington16% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 19 | +2.4 |
Defense K.Turner 1.5 sacks and 1 INT, J.Wallace 1 INT, P.Ford 1 sack, N.Landman 1 sack · Kicking H.Mevis 3/4 FG (long 41)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 22/34 | 270 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III44% | 11 | 44% | 100 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Z.Charbonnet56% | 9 | 36% | 32 | 1 | +2.7 |
| S.Darnold100% | 3 | 12% | 7 | +0.4 | |
| R.Shaheed54% | 1 | 4% | 31 | +1.8 | |
| A.Barner94% | 1 | 4% | 1 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba96% | 13 | 42% | 8 | 96 | 1 | +0.4 |
| A.Barner94% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 49 | 1 | +2.8 |
| C.Kupp93% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 39 | -1.7 | |
| Z.Charbonnet56% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 22 | -0.1 | |
| K.III44% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 64 | +3.2 | |
| R.Shaheed54% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -8.3 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Rams give up 159 yards a game to wide receivers (25th), against a league average of 140. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 168 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Rams are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.60 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Rams give up 45 yards a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 53. Seahawks' tight ends produce 40 (27th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Seahawks average +0.04 EPA per play (10th). Rams allow -0.05 (11th). League average is +0.01.
The Seahawks lead the series 28–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. Jan 25, 2026, at Lumen Field: the Seahawks won 31–27. Sam Darnold started at quarterback for the Seahawks and Matthew Stafford for the Rams; Mike Macdonald and Sean McVay coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 21 · playoffs | LA 27 at SEA 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 · OT | LA 37 at SEA 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | SEA 19 at LA 21 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | SEA 30 at LA 25 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 · OT | LA 26 at SEA 20 |
2025 records
| Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–1 | 6–2 |
| Away | 5–4 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | WWLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 30.5 – 20.4 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors LA | LA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 43%#12 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.3#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 8%#9 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.09#7 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 4.0#11 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 38%#10 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 57%#13 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 159#25 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 45#7 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 7.5#19 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 39#26 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Rams: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.