2025
Week 17 · Saturday 8:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Packers offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 41–24; their low point was 44% at Q1 15:00. The Packers had been 56% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 3:42: T.Huntley pass short left to Z.Flowers to GB 41 for 13 yards (I.McDuffie) (46% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 2:44, 12 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 2:44GBM.Willis pass deep right to B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (N.Wiggins).22% → 33%
- 2Q1 5:51GBM.Willis pass deep middle to C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45% → 55%
- 3Q4 10:14BALT.Huntley pass short left to Z.Flowers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [K.Enagbare].78% → 87%
- 4Q4 7:02BALC.Tune pass short left intended for B.Melton INTERCEPTED by M.Humphrey at BAL 26. M.Humphrey to BAL 32 for 6 yards (M.Golden).86% → 94%
- 5Q2 6:27BALM.Willis FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 30, RECOVERED by BAL-M.Green at GB 30.71% → 79%
- ★Q1 3:42BALT.Huntley pass short left to Z.Flowers to GB 41 for 13 yards (I.McDuffie).turning point46% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Henry led the Ravens at +16.6 EPA (36 carries for 216). M.Willis led the Packers at +16.6 EPA (18 of 21 for 288).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Huntley100% | 16/20 | 107 | 1 | 1 | +6.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry63% | 36 | 68% | 216 | 4 | +16.6 |
| K.Mitchell18% | 9 | 17% | 31 | -2.1 | |
| T.Huntley100% | 8 | 15% | 60 | +4.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers68% | 5 | 25% | 4 | 30 | 1 | +3.7 |
| M.Andrews41% | 4 | 20% | 4 | 28 | +2.6 | |
| I.Likely70% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 27 | +3.3 | |
| R.Ali20% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 8 | -1.4 | |
| K.Mitchell18% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 7 | -0.1 | |
| D.Hopkins25% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| R.Bateman53% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 | |
| C.Kolar49% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense M.Humphrey 1 INT, T.Jones 1.5 sacks, T.Robinson 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Loop 2/2 FG (long 34)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis83% | 18/21 | 288 | 1 | 1 | +18.1 | |
| C.Tune17% | 1/4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | -6.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis83% | 9 | 53% | 60 | 2 | -1.5 |
| J.Jacobs28% | 4 | 24% | 3 | -4.5 | |
| E.Wilson36% | 3 | 18% | 16 | -0.1 | |
| C.Tune17% | 1 | 6% | 0 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Watson62% | 6 | 24% | 5 | 113 | 1 | +8.3 |
| J.Reed51% | 4 | 16% | 4 | 41 | +3.5 | |
| B.Melton | 3 | 12% | 1 | 34 | -2.2 | |
| R.Doubs57% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 62 | +5.6 | |
| M.Golden53% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 12 | -1.3 | |
| C.Brooks45% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 11 | +0.1 | |
| J.Jacobs28% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Wicks6% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 | |
| J.Whyle64% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| E.Wilson36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.2 |
Defense Q.Walker 1 sack · Kicking B.McManus 1/1 FG (long 24)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Packers take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (8th). Ravens get home on 5% (31st). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Ravens give up 6.6 targets a game to tight ends (8th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Packers succeed on 47% of plays (4th) against a defense that allows 44% (17th).
The Packers lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | BAL 41 at GB 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 15 | GB 31 at BAL 30 |
| 2017 · Wk 11 | BAL 23 at GB 0 |
| 2013 · Wk 6 | GB 19 at BAL 17 |
| 2009 · Wk 13 | BAL 14 at GB 27 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–3 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.