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Wild Card · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium

JAXvsBUF

Jaguars offensevsBills defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

BUF offenseJAX offense
Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 19

J.Allen led the Bills at +14.8 EPA (28 of 35 for 273). T.Etienne led the Jaguars at +7.3 EPA (10 carries for 67).

BUF Bills

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
J.Allen28/3527311+9.8
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
J.Cook1558%46-1.8
J.Allen1142%332+5.0
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
K.Shakir1234%1282+2.6
B.Cooks514%358+3.3
D.Kincaid514%3281+1.5
J.Cook39%25-1.4
G.Davis39%214+1.6
D.Knox39%330+0.2
T.Shavers26%114+1.3
F.Jr.13%16+0.1
K.Coleman13%136+2.8

Defense S.Thompson 1 INT, C.Bishop 1 INT, G.Rousseau 1 sack · Kicking M.Prater 2/2 FG (long 50)

JAX Jaguars

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
T.Lawrence18/30207321+0.7
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
T.Etienne1043%67+2.7
T.Lawrence626%31-3.9
B.Tuten417%51+3.2
P.Washington29%2-1.0
L.Jr.14%3-0.3
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
P.Washington1240%71071-0.8
T.Etienne517%5491+4.6
B.Strange517%29-1.7
J.Meyers413%112-3.1
B.Jr.27%2211+3.3
L.Jr.13%19+0.1
T.Patrick13%00-0.4

Defense J.Hines-Allen 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 1/2 FG (long 43)

Each player's line for this game counted from the play-by-play, since nflverse's weekly stats for it haven't posted yet; they replace these lines with the next build once they do. The percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Run it at them

Jaguars' run game is 14th in EPA per carry (-0.04). Bills allow +0.04 (29th).

02
Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Bills give up 4.6 targets a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 7.3. Jaguars' tight ends produce 6.1 (23rd).

04
Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Jaguars average +0.03 EPA per play (13th). Bills allow -0.01 (13th). League average is +0.01.

The series · Bills and Jaguars since 1999, and this season's records18 meetings

The Bills lead the series 10–8 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.

Bills at home5–2the Bills' record
In Jacksonville5–4the Bills' record
Most pointsBills 47 · Jaguars 362024 · 2007
Biggest winBills by 37 · Jaguars by 222024 · 2007
Playoffs1–1the Bills' record

The last 5

2025 · Wk 19 · playoffsBUF 27 at JAX 24
2024 · Wk 3JAX 10 at BUF 47
2023 · Wk 5JAX 25 at BUF 20
2021 · Wk 9BUF 6 at JAX 9
2018 · Wk 12JAX 21 at BUF 24

2025 records

BillsJaguars
Overall12–513–4
Division4–25–1
Conference9–310–2
Other conference3–23–2
Home7–27–2
Away5–36–2
Last 5WWWLWWWWWW
StreakWon 1Won 8
Points a game28.3 – 21.527.9 – 19.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · JAX offense against BUF defense
StatJAX JAX offFavors JAX · Favors BUFBUF BUF def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
+0.03#13
-0.01#13+0.01
Success rate
45%#13
43%#1344%
Yards per play
5.4#15
5.4#165.4
Explosive play rate
10%#12
11%#2710%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
+0.06#11
-0.09#9+0.01
Sack rate
7%#17
6%#207%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.04#14
+0.04#29-0.05
Yards per carry
4.0#23
4.9#304.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion
41%#14
43%#2440%
Red zone TD rate
64%#9
59%#1959%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
164#6
122#7140
TE yards per game
44#23
27#153
TE targets per game
6.1#23
4.6#17.3
RB receiving yards per game
27#23
28#932
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Jaguars: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.4711% of throws
+0.374% of throws
+0.207% of throws
Short
+0.0731% of throws
+0.0418% of throws
+0.2229% of throws

Bills: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.6337 throws
+0.7418 throws
+0.1852 throws
Short
+0.09165 throws
-0.2478 throws
-0.14190 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.