2025
Week 2 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 17 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 22–6; their low point was 37% at Q1 15:00. The Vikings had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 3:31: B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 13 M.Price to MIN 13 for no gain (M.Ford) (47% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 15:00, 17 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 15:00MINJ.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (Z.Harrison) [Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-D.Deablo at MIN 38.65% → 82%
- 2Q2 0:12MINJ.McCarthy pass deep middle to J.Jefferson to ATL 33 for 50 yards (X.Watts; J.Bates).31% → 43%
- 3Q1 1:40ATLM.Penix pass short right to D.London to MIN 30 for 18 yards (E.Wilson). FUMBLES (E.Wilson), RECOVERED by MIN-T.Jackson at MIN 23. T.Jackson to MIN…35% → 46%
- 4Q2 0:28ATLJ.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD58% → 67%
- 5Q2 10:00MINJ.McCarthy pass deep right to A.Thielen to ATL 19 for 19 yards (B.Bowman).42% → 50%
- ★Q2 3:31ATLB.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 13 M.Price to MIN 13 for no gain (M.Ford).turning point47% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Allgeier led the Falcons at +3.4 EPA (16 carries for 76). A.Thielen led the Vikings at +2.9 EPA (2 catches for 26).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 13/21 | 135 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson65% | 22 | 56% | 143 | +4.3 | |
| T.Allgeier33% | 16 | 41% | 76 | 1 | +3.4 |
| M.Jr.100% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Pitts80% | 5 | 24% | 4 | 37 | +1.1 | |
| B.Robinson65% | 5 | 24% | 3 | 25 | -1.2 | |
| D.Mooney86% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 20 | +0.4 | |
| D.London85% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 49 | -2.5 | |
| R.McCloud | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| T.Allgeier33% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 |
Defense Z.Harrison 1.5 sacks, B.Dorlus 1.5 sacks, X.Watts 1 INT, B.Jr. 1 INT · Kicking J.Romo 5/5 FG (long 54)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 11/21 | 158 | 2 | 6 | -18.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason60% | 9 | 47% | 30 | -0.8 | |
| A.Jones43% | 5 | 26% | 23 | +0.0 | |
| J.McCarthy100% | 5 | 26% | 25 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 6 | 29% | 3 | 81 | -1.6 | |
| J.Nailor100% | 5 | 24% | 3 | 31 | -3.2 | |
| A.Thielen81% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 26 | +2.9 | |
| T.Hockenson72% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 12 | -1.9 | |
| J.Mason60% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 8 | -0.6 | |
| A.Jones43% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense J.Greenard 1 sack, J.Redmond 1 sack, D.Turner 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 51)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Vikings average 4.4 yards per carry (11th). Falcons allow 4.4 (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Falcons are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.79 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Vikings take a sack on 11% of dropbacks (31st). Falcons get home on 10% (4th). League average is 7%.
Success rate
Call this one even. Vikings succeed on 43% of plays (23rd) against a defense that allows 45% (18th).
The Vikings lead the series 9–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | ATL 22 at MIN 6 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | ATL 21 at MIN 42 |
| 2023 · Wk 9 | MIN 31 at ATL 28 |
| 2020 · Wk 6 | ATL 40 at MIN 23 |
| 2019 · Wk 1 | ATL 12 at MIN 28 |
2025 records
| Falcons | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 9–8 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 4 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 20.8 – 23.6 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | -0.01#15 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 45%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 5.3#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 10%#20 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | -0.03#13 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 10%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | -0.02#24 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.4#23 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 41%#16 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 53%#4 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 144#20 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 46#8 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 6.0#5 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 30#17 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.