2025
Week 2 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cardinals, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cardinals won 27–22 and were favored the whole way, never below 68%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:58, 20 points for the Panthers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:58CARS.Martin kicks onside 14 yards from CAR 35 to CAR 49, impetus ends at CAR 44. RECOVERED by CAR-D.Richardson.5% → 25%
- 2Q4 0:54ARIB.Young pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CAR-B.Young, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 33.68% → 83%
- 3Q4 1:01CARB.Young pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on ARI-J.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 48 - No Play.18% → 32%
- 4Q1 13:36ARIB.Young sacked at CAR 19 for -11 yards (J.Sweat). FUMBLES (J.Sweat) [J.Sweat], touched at CAR 19, RECOVERED by ARI-Z.Collins at CAR 3. Z.Collins…77% → 89%
- 5Q4 0:33ARIB.Young sacked at ARI 46 for -8 yards (C.Campbell).88% → 99%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Hubbard led the Panthers at +4.3 EPA (10 carries for 38). T.McBride led the Cardinals at +5.3 EPA (6 catches for 78).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 35/55 | 328 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard74% | 10 | 53% | 38 | -0.3 | |
| R.Dowdle29% | 6 | 32% | 9 | -3.4 | |
| B.Young100% | 2 | 11% | 2 | -0.4 | |
| X.Legette80% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan85% | 10 | 19% | 6 | 100 | +2.8 | |
| H.Renfrow81% | 9 | 17% | 7 | 48 | 2 | +3.6 |
| J.Sanders66% | 9 | 17% | 7 | 54 | +3.2 | |
| X.Legette80% | 8 | 15% | 1 | -2 | -5.0 | |
| C.Hubbard74% | 6 | 11% | 5 | 39 | 1 | +4.6 |
| B.Tremayne18% | 5 | 9% | 3 | 48 | +3.3 | |
| T.Tremble41% | 3 | 6% | 3 | 20 | +1.5 | |
| R.Dowdle29% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 10 | +0.8 | |
| M.Evans7% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| T.Etienne2% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 2 | -0.7 |
Defense D.Wonnum 1 INT, P.Umanmielen 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/1 FG (long 27)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray98% | 17/25 | 220 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Conner55% | 11 | 50% | 34 | 1 | -0.2 |
| K.Murray98% | 7 | 32% | 32 | -1.7 | |
| T.Benson44% | 3 | 14% | 14 | -0.5 | |
| J.Brissett2% | 1 | 5% | 2 | +2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride91% | 7 | 28% | 6 | 78 | +5.3 | |
| T.Benson44% | 6 | 24% | 4 | 30 | -5.3 | |
| M.Jr.93% | 5 | 20% | 2 | 27 | +0.7 | |
| E.Higgins40% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 45 | +2.7 | |
| M.Wilson69% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 11 | 1 | +2.9 |
| J.Conner55% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 18 | +1.8 | |
| G.Dortch18% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.2 |
Defense C.Campbell 2 sacks, B.Browning 1 INT, J.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/2 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Panthers give up 61 yards a game to tight ends (25th), against a league average of 53. Cardinals' tight ends produce 93 (1st).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Panthers give up 130 yards a game to wide receivers (13th), against a league average of 140. Cardinals' wide receivers produce 125 (23rd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Cardinals succeed on 43% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 45% (19th).
The Panthers lead the series 14–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | CAR 22 at ARI 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 · OT | ARI 30 at CAR 36 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | ARI 26 at CAR 16 |
| 2021 · Wk 10 | CAR 34 at ARI 10 |
| 2020 · Wk 4 | ARI 21 at CAR 31 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 3–14 |
| Division | 3–3 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 0–5 |
| Home | 5–3 | 1–7 |
| Away | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 9 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 20.9 – 28.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#22 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#21 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#23 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#29 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#15 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#29 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#24 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#9 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#22 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 125#23 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 93#1 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 12.8#1 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#6 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.