2025
Divisional · Saturday 4:30 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Broncos offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Broncos, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
J.Allen led the Bills at +11.1 EPA (25 of 39 for 283). M.Jr. led the Broncos at +8.2 EPA (8 catches for 93).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 25/39 | 283 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +5.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook | 24 | 67% | 117 | -4.6 | |
| J.Allen | 12 | 33% | 66 | +6.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir | 9 | 23% | 7 | 75 | +4.6 | |
| B.Cooks | 6 | 15% | 2 | 20 | +0.1 | |
| D.Kincaid | 6 | 15% | 6 | 83 | 1 | +9.1 |
| D.Knox | 5 | 13% | 3 | 32 | +1.1 | |
| J.Cook | 3 | 8% | 2 | 24 | +0.4 | |
| K.Coleman | 3 | 8% | 1 | 10 | 1 | +0.9 |
| C.Samuel | 3 | 8% | 1 | 2 | -6.0 | |
| M.Hardman | 2 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 1 | +0.8 |
| R.Davis | 2 | 5% | 2 | 9 | +1.3 |
Defense D.Walker 1 INT · Kicking M.Prater 3/3 FG (long 50)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix | 26/46 | 279 | 3 | 1 | +3.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix | 12 | 55% | 29 | -0.3 | |
| R.Harvey | 6 | 27% | 20 | -1.7 | |
| J.McLaughlin | 4 | 18% | 21 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton | 9 | 21% | 4 | 53 | +0.4 | |
| M.Jr. | 8 | 19% | 8 | 93 | 1 | +8.2 |
| R.Harvey | 6 | 14% | 5 | 46 | +1.5 | |
| L.Humphrey | 5 | 12% | 2 | 33 | 1 | +2.2 |
| P.Bryant | 3 | 7% | 3 | 32 | +1.8 | |
| E.Engram | 3 | 7% | 1 | 7 | -6.1 | |
| A.Trautman | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| T.Badie | 2 | 5% | 1 | 7 | -1.7 | |
| J.McLaughlin | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| F.Crum | 1 | 2% | 1 | 7 | 1 | +2.0 |
| A.Prentice | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| N.Adkins | 1 | 2% | 1 | 1 | -0.6 |
Defense M.Roach 1.5 sacks, P.Locke 1 INT, J.McMillian 1 INT, N.Bonitto 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 4/4 FG (long 50)
Each player's line for this game counted from the play-by-play, since nflverse's weekly stats for it haven't posted yet; they replace these lines with the next build once they do. The percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Broncos take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (1st). Bills get home on 6% (20th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 27 yards a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 53. Broncos' tight ends produce 39 (28th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Broncos average +0.03 EPA per play (14th). Bills allow -0.01 (13th). League average is +0.01.
The series is even at 6–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 20 · OT · playoffs | BUF 30 at DEN 33 |
| 2024 · Wk 19 · playoffs | DEN 7 at BUF 31 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | DEN 24 at BUF 22 |
| 2020 · Wk 15 | BUF 48 at DEN 19 |
| 2019 · Wk 12 | DEN 3 at BUF 20 |
2025 records
| Bills | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–2 | 8–1 |
| Away | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WWLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#14 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#17 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#17 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#12 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#1 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#19 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#18 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#11 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#16 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 153#12 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 39#28 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#18 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#8 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.