2025
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 48–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 60%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 6:25, 23 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:25MINJ.Browning pass deep right intended for C.Brown INTERCEPTED by I.Rodgers (H.Smith) [I.Pace] at MIN 13. I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 89%
- 2Q2 2:00MINJ.Browning pass short right to N.Fant to MIN 32 for 4 yards (I.Rodgers). FUMBLES (I.Rodgers), RECOVERED by MIN-I.Rodgers at MIN 34. I.Rodgers for…87% → 95%
- 3Q1 14:41MINC.Wentz pass short right to J.Jefferson to CIN 48 for 1 yard (D.Hill). PENALTY on CIN-D.Hill, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 48.62% → 67%
- 4Q1 13:01MINC.Wentz pass short right to J.Oliver for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 71%
- 5Q1 9:45CINC.Wentz sacked at MIN 17 for -10 yards (sack split by K.Jenkins and M.Murphy).26% → 30%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Sample led the Bengals at +2.7 EPA (2 catches for 20). C.Wentz led the Vikings at +7.4 EPA (14 of 20 for 173).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Browning95% | 19/27 | 140 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -18.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown55% | 10 | 48% | 3 | -6.3 | |
| T.Brooks18% | 5 | 24% | 17 | -1.0 | |
| S.Perine27% | 4 | 19% | 21 | -0.6 | |
| J.Browning95% | 1 | 5% | 3 | +0.1 | |
| J.Chase86% | 1 | 5% | 9 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase86% | 6 | 23% | 5 | 50 | -3.9 | |
| N.Fant32% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 26 | -9.8 | |
| C.Brown55% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 17 | -11.4 | |
| M.Gesicki30% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 6 | -4.7 | |
| D.Sample68% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 20 | 1 | +2.7 |
| T.Higgins82% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 15 | +1.9 | |
| M.Tinsley12% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| C.Grandy21% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 |
Defense K.Jenkins 1.5 sacks, J.Ossai 1 sack, M.Murphy 0.5 sacks · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 45)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Wentz80% | 14/20 | 173 | 2 | 3 | +9.4 | |
| M.Brosmer20% | 2/4 | 29 | -3.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason60% | 16 | 52% | 116 | 2 | +5.1 |
| Z.Scott28% | 8 | 26% | 30 | -0.7 | |
| C.Akers12% | 5 | 16% | 19 | -0.9 | |
| C.Wentz80% | 2 | 6% | 4 | -2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson80% | 7 | 29% | 5 | 75 | +4.8 | |
| T.Hockenson68% | 6 | 25% | 5 | 49 | 1 | +6.2 |
| J.Nailor83% | 5 | 21% | 3 | 37 | +1.2 | |
| A.Thielen75% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| J.Oliver35% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 12 | 1 | +2.5 |
| C.Akers12% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| Z.Scott28% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 20 | -1.1 | |
| T.Felton20% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | -0.5 |
Defense A.Ginkel 2 sacks, I.Rodgers 1 INT, J.Metellus 1 INT, C.Chambliss 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 62)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Vikings average 4.4 yards per carry (11th). Bengals allow 5.2 (31st).
Deep left is open
Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Vikings' wide receivers produce 129 (22nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Vikings average -0.12 EPA per play (28th). Bengals allow +0.13 (29th). League average is +0.01.
The Bengals lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | CIN 10 at MIN 48 |
| 2023 · Wk 15 · OT | MIN 24 at CIN 27 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 · OT | MIN 24 at CIN 27 |
| 2017 · Wk 15 | CIN 7 at MIN 34 |
| 2013 · Wk 16 | MIN 14 at CIN 42 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 9–8 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 4–4 |
| Away | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | +0.13#29 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 48%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 12%#30 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | +0.16#28 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | +0.06#31 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 5.2#31 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 44%#26 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 65%#25 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 116#3 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 85#32 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 9.7#32 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 43#29 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.