2025
Week 3 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Chargers offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 23–20 from as low as 13% (Q4 4:18, down 20–13). The game turned for good at Q4 2:00: B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to C.Sutton (48% → 61%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:46, 19 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:46DENB.Nix pass deep left to C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.17% → 36%
- 2Q4 2:44LACJ.Herbert pass deep left to K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [N.Bonitto].30% → 46%
- 3Q3 13:40DENW.Lutz kicks 64 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 1. D.Davis to LAC 28 for 27 yards (J.Elliss). FUMBLES (J.Elliss), RECOVERED by DEN-J.Skinner at LAC 30.…58% → 72%
- 4Q4 2:00LACB.Nix pass incomplete deep left to C.Sutton.turning point48% → 61%
- 5Q4 3:49LACJ.Herbert pass short right to O.Hampton to DEN 24 for 22 yards (J.McMillian). FUMBLES (J.McMillian), ball out of bounds at DEN 24.20% → 33%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Sutton led the Broncos at +12.2 EPA (6 catches for 118). K.Allen led the Chargers at +4.3 EPA (7 catches for 65).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 14/25 | 153 | 1 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins67% | 11 | 52% | 83 | 1 | +2.1 |
| B.Nix100% | 8 | 38% | 33 | -1.5 | |
| R.Harvey29% | 2 | 10% | 2 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton81% | 8 | 35% | 6 | 118 | 1 | +12.2 |
| M.Jr.44% | 4 | 17% | 1 | 4 | -3.0 | |
| T.Franklin79% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 8 | -2.5 | |
| R.Harvey29% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 14 | -2.2 | |
| J.Dobbins67% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| L.Krull42% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 9 | -1.4 |
Defense N.Bonitto 2 sacks, B.Jones 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack, J.Franklin-Myers 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 42)
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 28/47 | 300 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton79% | 19 | 68% | 70 | 1 | -1.3 |
| N.Harris13% | 6 | 21% | 28 | +0.4 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 2 | 7% | 6 | +0.6 | |
| D.Davis8% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Allen65% | 11 | 24% | 7 | 65 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Q.Johnston87% | 9 | 20% | 6 | 89 | +3.9 | |
| L.McConkey93% | 7 | 16% | 4 | 41 | +1.1 | |
| O.II26% | 7 | 16% | 5 | 46 | +0.4 | |
| O.Hampton79% | 7 | 16% | 6 | 59 | +2.1 | |
| T.Conklin26% | 2 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| T.Fisk34% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| T.Harris29% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense D.James 1 sack, T.Dye 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 3/3 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 60 yards a game to tight ends (24th), against a league average of 53. Chargers' tight ends produce 51 (18th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Chargers score a touchdown on 47% of red zone trips (29th). Broncos allow 45% (2nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Chargers average -0.04 EPA per play (25th). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Broncos lead the series 33–23 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Oct 11, 2026, at SoFi Stadium: the Broncos won 23–17. Justin Herbert started at quarterback for the Chargers and Bo Nix for the Broncos; Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | DEN 23 at LAC 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | LAC 3 at DEN 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | DEN 20 at LAC 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | DEN 27 at LAC 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | LAC 23 at DEN 16 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 11–6 |
| Division | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 8–1 | 6–3 |
| Away | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | WWWLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 21.6 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#25 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#22 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#22 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#26 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#23 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#25 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#5 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#29 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#10 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#18 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#27 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.