2025
Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Chargers offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 19–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 89%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:49, 4 points for the Chargers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:49LACT.Lance pass short left to K.Allen to LAC 34 for 6 yards (A.Singleton).6% → 11%
- 2Q1 13:58DENJ.McLaughlin left guard to DEN 19 for 6 yards (D.Hand).91% → 95%
- 3Q1 3:50DENT.Lance pass short middle intended for K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by J.McMillian at LAC 45. J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.93% → 97%
- 4Q1 13:18LACR.Harvey right tackle to DEN 20 for 1 yard (D.Phillips).5% → 8%
- 5Q4 13:29DENT.Lance sacked at LAC 16 for -8 yards (N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (N.Bonitto) [N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-S.Jones at LAC 20.95% → 98%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
O.II led the Chargers at +2.4 EPA (2 catches for 23). T.Badie led the Broncos at +2.0 EPA (2 carries for -2).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lance100% | 20/44 | 136 | 1 | 4 | -31.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lance100% | 9 | 43% | 69 | +3.2 | |
| J.Patterson79% | 8 | 38% | 29 | -1.5 | |
| K.Vidal20% | 3 | 14% | 12 | +0.1 | |
| H.Haskins4% | 1 | 5% | 3 | +1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Allen54% | 13 | 34% | 7 | 36 | -5.5 | |
| T.Harris97% | 6 | 16% | 2 | 28 | +1.0 | |
| W.Dissly44% | 5 | 13% | 1 | 6 | -2.7 | |
| K.Lambert-Smith32% | 5 | 13% | 2 | 24 | -7.8 | |
| J.Patterson79% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 8 | -1.6 | |
| O.II46% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 23 | +2.4 | |
| T.Conklin32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.1 | |
| D.Davis66% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | -0.3 | |
| K.Vidal20% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -2 | -2.3 |
Defense J.Eboigbe 2 sacks, D.Phillips 1 sack, O.Oweh 0.5 sacks, O.Ogbonnia 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Dicker 1/1 FG (long 30)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 14/23 | 141 | 4 | -5.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey56% | 15 | 48% | 28 | -7.2 | |
| B.Nix100% | 8 | 26% | 49 | +3.5 | |
| J.McLaughlin22% | 6 | 19% | 41 | +1.7 | |
| T.Badie15% | 2 | 6% | -2 | -2.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Bryant66% | 5 | 22% | 4 | 31 | +1.6 | |
| E.Engram39% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 45 | +0.7 | |
| R.Harvey56% | 4 | 17% | 1 | 5 | -3.9 | |
| M.Jr.32% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 10 | 0.0 | |
| C.Sutton78% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 5 | -2.6 | |
| T.Badie15% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 28 | +4.6 | |
| J.McLaughlin22% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 17 | +0.3 | |
| T.Franklin42% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense N.Bonitto 1.5 sacks, J.McMillian 1 INT, J.Strnad 1 sack, E.Uwazurike 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 4/4 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 60 yards a game to tight ends (24th), against a league average of 53. Chargers' tight ends produce 51 (18th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Chargers score a touchdown on 47% of red zone trips (29th). Broncos allow 45% (2nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Chargers average -0.04 EPA per play (25th). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Broncos lead the series 33–23 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Oct 11, 2026, at SoFi Stadium: the Broncos won 23–17. Justin Herbert started at quarterback for the Chargers and Bo Nix for the Broncos; Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | DEN 23 at LAC 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | LAC 3 at DEN 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | DEN 20 at LAC 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | DEN 27 at LAC 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | LAC 23 at DEN 16 |
2025 records
| Chargers | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 14–3 |
| Division | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 6–3 | 8–1 |
| Away | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | WWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 21.6 – 20.0 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#25 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#22 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#22 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#26 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#23 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#25 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#5 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#29 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#10 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#18 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#27 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.