DOWN X DOWN › week 18 › Chargers at Broncos

Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High

Broncos offensevsChargers defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Broncos, 18 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

LAC offense DEN offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · LAC 3 · DEN 19

The Broncos won 19–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 89%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:49, 4 points for the Chargers.

At kickoffDEN 92%DEN by 14.5 on the line

DEN low point89%Q1 11:54 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%0times the favorite changed

Biggest swing4 ptsLAC · Q1 14:49

DEN wins50%LAC wins

12345DEN low 89%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q1 14:49LACT.Lance pass short left to K.Allen to LAC 34 for 6 yards (A.Singleton).6% → 11%+4 LAC
2Q1 13:58DENJ.McLaughlin left guard to DEN 19 for 6 yards (D.Hand).91% → 95%+4 DEN
3Q1 3:50LACT.Lance pass short middle intended for K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by J.McMillian at LAC 45. J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.93% → 97%+4 DEN
4Q1 13:18DENR.Harvey right tackle to DEN 20 for 1 yard (D.Phillips).5% → 8%+4 LAC
5Q4 13:29LACT.Lance sacked at LAC 16 for -8 yards (N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (N.Bonitto) [N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-S.Jones at LAC 20.95% → 98%+3 DEN

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 18

O.II led the Chargers at +2.4 EPA (2 catches for 23). T.Badie led the Broncos at +2.0 EPA (2 carries for -2).

Chargers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Lance100%	20/44	136		1	4	-31.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
T.Lance100%	9	43%	69	+3.2
J.Patterson79%	8	38%	29	-1.5
K.Vidal20%	3	14%	12	+0.1
H.Haskins4%	1	5%	3	+1.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
K.Allen54%	13	34%	7	36	-5.5
T.Harris97%	6	16%	2	28	+1.0
W.Dissly44%	5	13%	1	6	-2.7
K.Lambert-Smith32%	5	13%	2	24	-7.8
J.Patterson79%	4	11%	3	8	-1.6
O.II46%	2	5%	2	23	+2.4
T.Conklin32%	1	3%	1	6	+0.1
D.Davis66%	1	3%	1	7	-0.3
K.Vidal20%	1	3%	1	-2	-2.3

Defense J.Eboigbe 2 sacks, D.Phillips 1 sack, O.Oweh 0.5 sacks, O.Ogbonnia 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Dicker 1/1 FG (long 30)

Broncos

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
B.Nix100%	14/23	141			4	-5.8

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
R.Harvey56%	15	48%	28	-7.2
B.Nix100%	8	26%	49	+3.5
J.McLaughlin22%	6	19%	41	+1.7
T.Badie15%	2	6%	-2	-2.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
P.Bryant66%	5	22%	4	31	+1.6
E.Engram39%	4	17%	3	45	+0.7
R.Harvey56%	4	17%	1	5	-3.9
M.Jr.32%	3	13%	2	10	0.0
C.Sutton78%	2	9%	1	5	-2.6
T.Badie15%	2	9%	2	28	+4.6
J.McLaughlin22%	2	9%	1	17	+0.3
T.Franklin42%	1	4%	0	0	-0.8

Defense N.Bonitto 1.5 sacks, J.McMillian 1 INT, J.Strnad 1 sack, E.Uwazurike 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 4/4 FG (long 41)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Backs catch passes

Chargers give up 29 yards a game to running backs (15th), against a league average of 32. Broncos' running backs produce 36 (8th).

Opportunity

Deep left is open

Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.49 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Chargers give up 43 yards a game to tight ends (6th), against a league average of 53. Broncos' tight ends produce 39 (28th).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Broncos create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (20th). Chargers give them up at 9% (17th).

The series · Chargers and Broncos since 1999, and this season's records56 meetings

The Broncos lead the series 33–23 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Oct 11, 2026, at SoFi Stadium: the Broncos won 23–17. Justin Herbert started at quarterback for the Chargers and Bo Nix for the Broncos; Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton coached.

Chargers at home14–14the Chargers' record

In Denver9–19the Chargers' record

Most pointsChargers 52 · Broncos 392008 · 2008

Biggest winChargers by 38 · Broncos by 292007 · 2003

Playoffs0–1the Chargers' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 5	DEN 23 at LAC 17
2025 · Wk 18	LAC 3 at DEN 19
2025 · Wk 3	DEN 20 at LAC 23
2024 · Wk 16	DEN 27 at LAC 34
2024 · Wk 6	LAC 23 at DEN 16

2025 records

	Chargers	Broncos
Overall	11–6	14–3
Division	5–1	5–1
Conference	8–4	9–3
Other conference	3–2	5–0
Home	6–3	8–1
Away	5–3	6–2
Last 5	WWWLL	WWLWW
Streak	Lost 2	Won 2
Points a game	21.6 – 20.0	23.6 – 18.3

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · DEN offense against LAC defense

Stat	DEN off	LAC def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.03#14	-0.08#7	+0.01
Success rate	43%#17	41%#6	44%
Yards per play	5.3#17	5.2#12	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#20	9%#17	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.05#12	-0.09#10	+0.01
Sack rate	4%#1	9%#5	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.06#19	-0.12#3	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.2#18	4.1#14	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	42%#11	35%#3	40%
Red zone TD rate	58%#16	44%#1	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	153#12	127#8	140
TE yards per game	39#28	43#6	53
TE targets per game	6.5#18	5.7#2	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	36#8	29#15	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Broncos: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.708% of throws

+0.023% of throws

+0.067% of throws

Short

+0.2032% of throws

+0.0614% of throws

-0.0437% of throws

Chargers: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.4937 throws

+0.1318 throws

-0.5638 throws