2025
Week 3 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 17 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 22–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:35, 11 points for the Giants.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:35KCP.Mahomes sacked at KC 15 for -7 yards (B.Burns). FUMBLES (B.Burns), touched at KC 12, and recovers at KC 7.31% → 43%
- 2Q2 1:49NYGC.Skattebo right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23% → 33%
- 3Q2 0:56NYGR.Wilson pass deep right intended for M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by J.Watson at KC -8. Touchback.61% → 71%
- 4Q2 0:23KCP.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to M.Brown. PENALTY on NYG-A.Phillips, Defensive Pass Interference, 52 yards, enforced at KC 37 - No Play.72% → 81%
- 5Q1 9:10NYGR.Wilson pass incomplete short right to T.Tracy (N.Bolton).69% → 76%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Thornton led the Chiefs at +6.8 EPA (5 catches for 71). C.Skattebo led the Giants at +5.4 EPA (10 carries for 60).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 22/37 | 224 | 1 | 2 | +8.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt44% | 10 | 36% | 34 | 1 | +0.0 |
| I.Pacheco56% | 10 | 36% | 45 | +0.2 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 5 | 18% | 2 | -1.5 | |
| B.Smith11% | 2 | 7% | 13 | +1.0 | |
| N.Remigio7% | 1 | 4% | 11 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Thornton76% | 9 | 26% | 5 | 71 | 1 | +6.8 |
| T.Kelce74% | 7 | 20% | 4 | 26 | +0.1 | |
| M.Brown68% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 42 | +0.2 | |
| N.Gray68% | 6 | 17% | 3 | 17 | -1.5 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster69% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 55 | +4.9 | |
| K.Hunt44% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +1.3 | |
| I.Pacheco56% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.5 | |
| B.Smith11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense J.Watson 1 INT, C.Roland-Wallace 1 INT, C.Jones 1 sack, G.Karlaftis 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 3/4 FG (long 54)
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Wilson95% | 18/32 | 160 | 2 | 2 | -14.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Skattebo59% | 10 | 37% | 60 | 1 | +3.5 |
| T.Jr.17% | 7 | 26% | 29 | -0.5 | |
| R.Wilson95% | 5 | 19% | 27 | -2.4 | |
| D.Singletary24% | 4 | 15% | 11 | -0.6 | |
| J.Dart5% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Skattebo59% | 8 | 27% | 6 | 61 | +2.0 | |
| M.Nabers92% | 7 | 23% | 2 | 13 | -8.0 | |
| D.Slayton76% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 30 | +1.9 | |
| W.Robinson77% | 4 | 13% | 1 | 26 | +0.2 | |
| T.Jr.17% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 7 | -3.5 | |
| T.Johnson86% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 10 | -2.3 | |
| C.Manhertz20% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 | |
| D.Bellinger24% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 |
Defense B.Burns 1 sack · Kicking G.Gano 1/1 FG (long 25)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Chiefs' run game is 15th in EPA per carry (-0.05). Giants allow +0.13 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Giants are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Giants
Chiefs convert 38% of third downs (23rd). Giants allow 40% (14th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Chiefs gain 5.2 yards per play (20th). Giants give up 6.0 (29th), with the league at 5.4.
The Giants lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). The Chiefs have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | KC 22 at NYG 9 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | NYG 17 at KC 20 |
| 2017 · Wk 11 · OT | KC 9 at NYG 12 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 | NYG 7 at KC 31 |
| 2009 · Wk 4 | NYG 27 at KC 16 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 4–13 |
| Division | 1–5 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Away | 1–7 | 1–8 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 22.4 – 25.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | +0.08#25 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 47%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 6.0#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 12%#32 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | +0.02#16 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | +0.13#32 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 5.4#32 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 40%#14 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 63%#23 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 152#23 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 47#10 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 6.7#9 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 31#19 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.