2025
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Panthers, 17 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 30–0 from as low as 25% (Q1 11:46, tied 0–0). The Falcons had been 72% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 12:24: M.Penix pass short left to T.Allgeier to CAR 45 for no gain (C.Smith-Wade) (50% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 5:14, 14 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:14ATLB.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29 T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-D.Hellams at CAR 33.44% → 57%
- 2Q3 11:46CARM.Penix pass short left intended for B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by C.Smith-Wade at ATL 11. C.Smith-Wade for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR,…73% → 83%
- 3Q1 10:54CARJ.Romo 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right29% → 37%
- 4Q1 8:18CARB.Young pass deep left to T.McMillan pushed ob at ATL 16 for 23 yards (J.Bates).37% → 44%
- 5Q1 1:25ATLC.Hubbard left tackle to ATL 37 for no gain (L.London). PENALTY on CAR-C.Mays, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 37 - No Play.38% → 45%
- ★Q2 12:24CARM.Penix pass short left to T.Allgeier to CAR 45 for no gain (C.Smith-Wade).turning point50% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.London led the Falcons at +2.6 EPA (5 catches for 55). R.Dowdle led the Panthers at +2.9 EPA (10 carries for 30).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.77% | 18/36 | 172 | 2 | -18.8 | ||
| K.Cousins23% | 5/7 | 29 | -3.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson80% | 13 | 57% | 72 | +1.0 | |
| N.Carter | 7 | 30% | 46 | -0.7 | |
| M.Jr.77% | 2 | 9% | 9 | -0.7 | |
| T.Allgeier9% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Mooney89% | 11 | 27% | 4 | 44 | -5.9 | |
| D.London86% | 8 | 20% | 5 | 55 | +2.6 | |
| K.Pitts82% | 6 | 15% | 4 | 39 | -1.1 | |
| B.Robinson80% | 6 | 15% | 5 | 39 | -4.3 | |
| R.McCloud | 5 | 12% | 2 | 20 | -9.0 | |
| D.Sills38% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 9 | +0.3 | |
| T.Allgeier9% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| C.Woerner21% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -5 | -1.8 |
Defense K.Elliss 1 sack · Kicking J.Romo 0/2 FG
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young98% | 16/24 | 121 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard62% | 17 | 57% | 73 | -1.8 | |
| R.Dowdle40% | 10 | 33% | 30 | 1 | +2.2 |
| B.Young98% | 2 | 7% | 8 | 1 | +1.6 |
| A.Dalton2% | 1 | 3% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan90% | 8 | 33% | 3 | 48 | +0.1 | |
| H.Renfrow29% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 6 | -3.2 | |
| C.Hubbard62% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 3 | -1.2 | |
| T.Tremble57% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 16 | +0.5 | |
| B.Tremayne28% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | +0.9 | |
| J.Sanders59% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 11 | +1.4 | |
| D.Moore97% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | -0.3 | |
| R.Dowdle40% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.7 | |
| M.Evans34% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense M.Jackson 1 INT, C.Smith-Wade 1 INT · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 3/3 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Panthers average 4.3 yards per carry (14th). Falcons allow 4.4 (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Falcons are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.79 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Falcons give up 6.0 targets a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 7.3. Panthers' tight ends produce 5.8 (27th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Panthers succeed on 43% of plays (18th) against a defense that allows 45% (18th).
The Falcons lead the series 33–22 since 1999. The Panthers have won the last 4. Sep 20, 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium: the Panthers won 34–3. Tua Tagovailoa started at quarterback for the Falcons and Bryce Young for the Panthers; Raheem Morris and Dave Canales coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | CAR 34 at ATL 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 · OT | CAR 30 at ATL 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | ATL 0 at CAR 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 · OT | CAR 44 at ATL 38 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | ATL 38 at CAR 20 |
2025 records
| Falcons | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Away | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WLWLL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 20.8 – 23.6 | 18.3 – 22.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#26 | -0.01#15 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#18 | 45%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#26 | 5.3#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#24 | 10%#20 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#25 | -0.03#13 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 10%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#17 | -0.02#24 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#14 | 4.4#23 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#25 | 41%#16 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#20 | 53%#4 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 131#19 | 144#20 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#30 | 46#8 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#27 | 6.0#5 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 30#17 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.