2025
Week 3 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 38–30 from as low as 18% (Q3 8:51, down 21–14). The Ravens had been 68% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 2:53: D.Montgomery right guard to BAL 13 for 72 yards (M.Humphrey) (41% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 8:31, 19 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:31BALD.Henry up the middle to BAL 21 for no gain (A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (A.Hutchinson), touched at BAL 22, RECOVERED by DET-D.Reed at BAL 19. D.Reed…64% → 83%
- 2Q3 2:53DETD.Montgomery right guard to BAL 13 for 72 yards (M.Humphrey).turning point41% → 58%
- 3Q4 15:00DETJ.Gibbs right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 69%
- 4Q3 8:55BALL.Jackson pass short right to M.Andrews for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 82%
- 5Q3 5:18DETJ.Goff pass deep right to A.St. Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26% → 39%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Montgomery led the Lions at +11.9 EPA (12 carries for 151). M.Andrews led the Ravens at +10.1 EPA (6 catches for 91).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 20/28 | 202 | 1 | +14.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs69% | 22 | 58% | 67 | 2 | +1.2 |
| D.Montgomery37% | 12 | 32% | 151 | 2 | +11.1 |
| J.Goff100% | 4 | 11% | 6 | -2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown85% | 8 | 31% | 7 | 77 | 1 | +8.7 |
| J.Gibbs69% | 6 | 23% | 5 | 32 | -1.1 | |
| S.LaPorta84% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 33 | +4.4 | |
| J.Williams91% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 43 | +4.5 | |
| K.Raymond49% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| I.TeSlaa21% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| D.Montgomery37% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.8 |
Defense A.Muhammad 2.5 sacks, D.Barnes 1 sack, A.Hutchinson 1 sack, T.Nowaske 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 1/2 FG (long 45)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 21/27 | 288 | 3 | 7 | +11.0 | |
| D.Henry49% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry49% | 12 | 63% | 50 | 1 | -5.7 |
| L.Jackson100% | 7 | 37% | 35 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Bateman60% | 7 | 25% | 5 | 63 | 1 | +6.2 |
| M.Andrews81% | 6 | 21% | 6 | 91 | 2 | +10.1 |
| J.Hill51% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 45 | +0.7 | |
| C.Kolar51% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 22 | +1.2 | |
| Z.Flowers86% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 13 | +0.3 | |
| D.Hopkins25% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 13 | +0.5 | |
| D.Henry49% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 | |
| T.Wallace56% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| D.Walker12% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 34 | +2.8 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking T.Loop 1/1 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Ravens average 5.2 yards per carry (1st). Lions allow 4.4 (24th).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Ravens take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (27th). Lions get home on 8% (8th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Ravens average +0.03 EPA per play (11th). Lions allow -0.01 (14th). League average is +0.01.
The Ravens lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | DET 38 at BAL 30 |
| 2023 · Wk 7 | DET 6 at BAL 38 |
| 2021 · Wk 3 | BAL 19 at DET 17 |
| 2017 · Wk 13 | DET 20 at BAL 44 |
| 2013 · Wk 15 | BAL 18 at DET 16 |
2025 records
| Lions | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 8–9 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | LWLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.