2025
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Raiders offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Raiders, 17 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Commanders won 41–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 54%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:42, 14 points for the Commanders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 3:42WASJ.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.57% → 72%
- 2Q1 15:00WASD.Carlson kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to WAS 4. D.Samuel to LV 27 for 69 yards (T.McCollum).57% → 67%
- 3Q1 1:25WASM.Gay 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right29% → 38%
- 4Q1 5:01WASM.Mariota pass short right to D.Samuel to WAS 23 for 9 yards (D.Holmes; I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-I.Pola-Mao, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards,…60% → 68%
- 5Q1 11:51LVG.Smith pass deep right to J.Meyers pushed ob at WAS 15 for 45 yards (M.Sainristil).32% → 39%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Smith led the Raiders at +16.3 EPA (19 of 29 for 289). M.Mariota led the Commanders at +8.8 EPA (15 of 21 for 207).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 19/29 | 289 | 3 | 5 | +12.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty61% | 17 | 61% | 63 | -5.3 | |
| Z.White29% | 5 | 18% | 19 | -2.9 | |
| D.Laube11% | 3 | 11% | 2 | -4.9 | |
| G.Smith100% | 2 | 7% | 5 | +4.0 | |
| T.Tucker94% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tucker94% | 9 | 33% | 8 | 145 | 3 | +15.7 |
| B.Bowers83% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 38 | +0.4 | |
| J.Meyers94% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 63 | +4.0 | |
| D.Jr.59% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 29 | +0.2 | |
| Z.White29% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| M.Mayer8% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| D.Laube11% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| J.Bech24% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +2.0 |
Defense M.Crosby 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 1/1 FG (long 37)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota100% | 15/21 | 207 | 1 | 1 | +10.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.38% | 11 | 34% | 39 | -1.9 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt40% | 8 | 25% | 26 | 1 | +0.5 |
| M.Mariota100% | 6 | 19% | 40 | 1 | -2.0 |
| J.McNichols26% | 4 | 13% | 78 | 1 | +6.8 |
| D.Sr.43% | 3 | 9% | 18 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McLaurin60% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 74 | +5.4 | |
| Z.Ertz52% | 3 | 17% | 3 | 38 | +2.1 | |
| D.Sr.43% | 3 | 17% | 2 | 11 | +1.7 | |
| L.McCaffrey36% | 3 | 17% | 3 | 56 | 1 | +6.8 |
| C.Moore57% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 25 | +2.4 | |
| J.Lane24% | 2 | 11% | 1 | -2 | -2.5 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt40% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 |
Defense B.Wagner 2 sacks, V.Miller 1 sack, D.Armstrong 1 sack, J.Jean-Baptiste 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 2/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Commanders give up 61 yards a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 53. Raiders' tight ends produce 68 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Commanders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.54 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Raiders take a sack on 11% of dropbacks (32nd). Commanders get home on 7% (12th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Raiders gain 4.4 yards per play (31st). Commanders give up 6.1 (30th), with the league at 5.4.
The Commanders lead the series 5–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | LV 24 at WAS 41 |
| 2021 · Wk 13 | WAS 17 at LV 15 |
| 2017 · Wk 3 | LV 10 at WAS 27 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 | WAS 24 at LV 14 |
| 2009 · Wk 14 | WAS 34 at LV 13 |
2025 records
| Raiders | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 5–12 |
| Division | 1–5 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Home | 2–7 | 2–6 |
| Away | 1–7 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | LWLLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 14.2 – 25.4 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.22#32 | +0.14#30 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 38%#30 | 48%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#31 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#31 | 11%#26 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#29 | +0.20#30 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#32 | 7%#12 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.30#32 | +0.03#28 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#32 | 4.7#28 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#28 | 42%#22 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#28 | 67%#30 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#30 | 163#27 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 61#26 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.2#3 | 6.7#10 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 33#21 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.