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DOWN X DOWN › week 3 › Texans at Jaguars

Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium

Texans offensevsJaguars defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

HOU offense JAX offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · HOU 10 · JAX 17

The Jaguars won 17–10; their low point was 34% at Q4 5:00. The game turned for good at Q4 3:58: C.Stroud pass short left to N.Collins to JAX 21 for 10 yards (T.Campbell). FUMBLES (T.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-D.Lloyd at JAX 15. D.Lloyd to… (37% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 9:25, 20 points for the Texans.

At kickoffJAX 52%JAX by 1.5 on the line

JAX low point34%Q4 5:00 · tied 10⁠–⁠10

Swings past 50%6times the favorite changed

Biggest swing20 ptsHOU · Q4 9:25

JAX wins50%HOU wins

12345Turning pointJAX low 34%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 9:25HOUC.Stroud pass deep left to N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24% → 44%+20
2Q4 3:58JAXC.Stroud pass short left to N.Collins to JAX 21 for 10 yards (T.Campbell). FUMBLES (T.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-D.Lloyd at JAX 15. D.Lloyd to…turning point37% → 56%+19
3Q4 6:18HOUT.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to P.Washington (T.Settle).46% → 60%+15
4Q4 0:27JAXC.Stroud pass deep middle intended for C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by An.Johnson (J.Hines-Allen) at JAX 4. An.Johnson to JAX 4 for no gain (X.Hutchinson).86% → 99%+13
5Q4 2:00JAXT.Lawrence pass short middle to B.Thomas pushed ob at HOU 10 for 46 yards (K.Lassiter).72% → 84%+12

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 3

N.Collins led the Texans at +4.0 EPA (8 catches for 104). B.Strange led the Jaguars at +2.1 EPA (6 catches for 61).

Texans

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
C.Stroud100%	25/38	204	1	2	2	-4.2

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
N.Chubb52%	9	47%	38	-1.1
W.Marks48%	6	32%	27	-2.8
C.Stroud100%	4	21%	22	+0.5

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
N.Collins86%	11	31%	8	104	1	+4.0
C.Kirk67%	8	22%	3	25		-7.8
D.Schultz79%	6	17%	5	39		+1.8
N.Chubb52%	4	11%	3	2		-1.8
X.Hutchinson62%	3	8%	3	16		-0.2
W.Marks48%	2	6%	1	9		-0.6
J.Higgins44%	1	3%	1	5		+0.7
J.Noel14%	1	3%	1	4		-0.3

Defense J.Pitre 1 INT, W.Jr. 1 sack, F.Fatukasi 0.5 sacks, D.Horton 0.5 sacks · Kicking K.Fairbairn 1/2 FG (long 27)

Jaguars

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Lawrence100%	20/40	222		1	2	-9.6

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Etienne54%	16	67%	56	1	-1.8
B.Tuten17%	6	25%	21	1	-0.9
T.Lawrence100%	2	8%	9		+1.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
P.Washington71%	11	29%	4	34	-8.0
B.Strange83%	7	18%	6	61	+2.1
B.Jr.81%	6	16%	2	55	+0.4
D.Brown33%	3	8%	2	7	+0.2
H.Long20%	3	8%	2	12	-0.5
T.Etienne54%	2	5%	0	0	-1.3
T.Hunter53%	2	5%	1	21	+1.3
J.Mundt26%	1	3%	1	7	+0.4
T.Patrick31%	1	3%	1	16	+0.9
L.Jr.30%	1	3%	1	9	-0.5
B.Tuten17%	1	3%	0	0	-0.7

Defense J.Lewis 1 INT, A.Johnson 1 INT, T.Walker 1 sack, A.Armstead 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Little 1/2 FG (long 39)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Clean pockets

Texans take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (9th). Jaguars get home on 5% (30th). League average is 7%.

Opportunity

Deep right is open

Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Texans send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Ground game stalls

Texans average 3.8 yards per carry (28th). Jaguars allow 3.7 (4th).

Wash

Yards per play

Call this one even. Texans gain 5.1 yards per play (25th). Jaguars give up 5.1 (8th), with the league at 5.4.

The series · Texans and Jaguars since 1999, and this season's records49 meetings

The Texans lead the series 33–16 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. Oct 18, 2026, at Wembley Stadium: the Texans won 34–31. Trevor Lawrence started at quarterback for the Jaguars and C.J. Stroud for the Texans; Liam Coen and DeMeco Ryans coached.

Texans at home17–7the Texans' record

In Jacksonville14–9the Texans' record

Most pointsTexans 43 · Jaguars 452012 · 2017

Biggest winTexans by 24 · Jaguars by 382015 · 2017

The last 5

2026 · Wk 6	HOU 34 at JAX 31
2025 · Wk 10	JAX 29 at HOU 36
2025 · Wk 3	HOU 10 at JAX 17
2024 · Wk 13	HOU 23 at JAX 20
2024 · Wk 4	JAX 20 at HOU 24

2025 records

	Texans	Jaguars
Overall	12–5	13–4
Division	5–1	5–1
Conference	10–2	10–2
Other conference	2–3	3–2
Home	7–2	7–2
Away	5–3	6–2
Last 5	WWWWW	WWWWW
Streak	Won 9	Won 8
Points a game	23.8 – 17.4	27.9 – 19.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · HOU offense against JAX defense

Stat	HOU off	JAX def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.03#24	-0.09#6	+0.01
Success rate	41%#28	42%#8	44%
Yards per play	5.1#25	5.1#8	5.4
Explosive play rate	8%#25	8%#3	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.00#16	-0.12#4	+0.01
Sack rate	5%#9	5%#30	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.11#30	-0.07#16	-0.05
Yards per carry	3.8#28	3.7#4	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	40%#18	42%#21	40%
Red zone TD rate	46%#30	64%#24	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	160#8	143#18	140
TE yards per game	51#16	59#23	53
TE targets per game	7.7#11	8.7#31	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	21#29	32#20	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Texans: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.416% of throws

+0.183% of throws

+0.038% of throws

Short

+0.0031% of throws

+0.4016% of throws

+0.0335% of throws

Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.1042 throws

-0.2133 throws

+0.4247 throws