2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 36–29 from as low as 2% (Q3 1:33, down 29–10). The Jaguars had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:37: D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN (37% → 72%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:37HOUD.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point37% → 72%
- 2Q4 0:27HOUT.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -9 yards (sack split by D.Hunter and H.To'oTo'o).59% → 82%
- 3Q4 0:07HOUT.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson) [W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-S.Rankins at JAX 32. S.Rankins for 32…77% → 100%
- 4Q1 11:04JAXC.Little kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. T.Smith to HOU 24 for 22 yards (V.Miller; T.Jones). FUMBLES (V.Miller), RECOVERED by JAX-D.Striggow…62% → 77%
- 5Q1 14:10JAXD.Mills pass short right intended for C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by J.Jones at HOU 40. J.Jones to HOU 40 for no gain (C.Kirk).54% → 68%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Meyers led the Jaguars at +4.3 EPA (3 catches for 41). J.Noel led the Texans at +4.4 EPA (4 catches for 35).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 13/23 | 158 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne56% | 16 | 59% | 58 | 1 | -2.6 |
| T.Lawrence100% | 5 | 19% | 35 | -0.2 | |
| B.Tuten27% | 4 | 15% | 5 | -1.4 | |
| P.Washington87% | 2 | 7% | -4 | -1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington87% | 7 | 30% | 3 | 33 | 1 | -1.6 |
| T.Etienne56% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 19 | +0.1 | |
| J.Meyers44% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 41 | +4.3 | |
| A.Trammell15% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 33 | +0.2 | |
| J.Mundt48% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 21 | +2.4 | |
| B.Tuten27% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 5 | +1.5 | |
| D.Brown37% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| L.Jr.32% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | -0.9 |
Defense J.Jones 1 INT, A.Armstead 1 sack, A.Johnson 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 3/3 FG (long 53)
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Mills100% | 27/45 | 292 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks80% | 14 | 64% | 63 | 1 | +0.9 |
| N.Chubb13% | 5 | 23% | 47 | +2.9 | |
| D.Mills100% | 3 | 14% | 20 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins89% | 15 | 34% | 7 | 136 | -2.1 | |
| D.Schultz77% | 11 | 25% | 7 | 53 | 1 | +4.3 |
| J.Higgins57% | 7 | 16% | 5 | 42 | 1 | +2.3 |
| J.Noel33% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 35 | +4.4 | |
| C.Kirk43% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -7.3 | |
| W.Marks80% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 18 | +1.6 | |
| N.Chubb13% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 |
Defense D.Hunter 3.5 sacks, D.Jr. 1 INT, W.Jr. 1 sack, H.To'oTo'o 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Wright 1/1 FG (long 23)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Jaguars score a touchdown on 64% of red zone trips (9th). Texans allow 60% (21st).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 11% of their throws there.
Ground game stalls
Jaguars average 4.0 yards per carry (23rd). Texans allow 3.5 (2nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Jaguars create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (12th). Texans give them up at 8% (8th).
The Texans lead the series 33–16 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. Oct 18, 2026, at Wembley Stadium: the Texans won 34–31. Trevor Lawrence started at quarterback for the Jaguars and C.J. Stroud for the Texans; Liam Coen and DeMeco Ryans coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | HOU 34 at JAX 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | JAX 29 at HOU 36 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | HOU 10 at JAX 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | HOU 23 at JAX 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | JAX 20 at HOU 24 |
2025 records
| Jaguars | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13–4 | 12–5 |
| Division | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 7–2 | 7–2 |
| Away | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 8 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 27.9 – 19.8 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.