2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 36–29 from as low as 2% (Q3 1:33, down 29–10). The Jaguars had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:37: D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN (37% → 72%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:37HOUD.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point37% → 72%
- 2Q4 0:27HOUT.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -9 yards (sack split by D.Hunter and H.To'oTo'o).59% → 82%
- 3Q4 0:07HOUT.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson) [W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-S.Rankins at JAX 32. S.Rankins for 32…77% → 100%
- 4Q1 11:04JAXC.Little kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. T.Smith to HOU 24 for 22 yards (V.Miller; T.Jones). FUMBLES (V.Miller), RECOVERED by JAX-D.Striggow…62% → 77%
- 5Q1 14:10JAXD.Mills pass short right intended for C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by J.Jones at HOU 40. J.Jones to HOU 40 for no gain (C.Kirk).54% → 68%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Meyers led the Jaguars at +4.3 EPA (3 catches for 41). J.Noel led the Texans at +4.4 EPA (4 catches for 35).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 13/23 | 158 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne56% | 16 | 59% | 58 | 1 | -2.6 |
| T.Lawrence100% | 5 | 19% | 35 | -0.2 | |
| B.Tuten27% | 4 | 15% | 5 | -1.4 | |
| P.Washington87% | 2 | 7% | -4 | -1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington87% | 7 | 30% | 3 | 33 | 1 | -1.6 |
| T.Etienne56% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 19 | +0.1 | |
| J.Meyers44% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 41 | +4.3 | |
| A.Trammell15% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 33 | +0.2 | |
| J.Mundt48% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 21 | +2.4 | |
| B.Tuten27% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 5 | +1.5 | |
| D.Brown37% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| L.Jr.32% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | -0.9 |
Defense J.Jones 1 INT, A.Armstead 1 sack, A.Johnson 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 3/3 FG (long 53)
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Mills100% | 27/45 | 292 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks80% | 14 | 64% | 63 | 1 | +0.9 |
| N.Chubb13% | 5 | 23% | 47 | +2.9 | |
| D.Mills100% | 3 | 14% | 20 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins89% | 15 | 34% | 7 | 136 | -2.1 | |
| D.Schultz77% | 11 | 25% | 7 | 53 | 1 | +4.3 |
| J.Higgins57% | 7 | 16% | 5 | 42 | 1 | +2.3 |
| J.Noel33% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 35 | +4.4 | |
| C.Kirk43% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -7.3 | |
| W.Marks80% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 18 | +1.6 | |
| N.Chubb13% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 |
Defense D.Hunter 3.5 sacks, D.Jr. 1 INT, W.Jr. 1 sack, H.To'oTo'o 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Wright 1/1 FG (long 23)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Texans take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (9th). Jaguars get home on 5% (30th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Texans send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Texans average 3.8 yards per carry (28th). Jaguars allow 3.7 (4th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Texans gain 5.1 yards per play (25th). Jaguars give up 5.1 (8th), with the league at 5.4.
The Texans lead the series 33–16 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. Oct 18, 2026, at Wembley Stadium: the Texans won 34–31. Trevor Lawrence started at quarterback for the Jaguars and C.J. Stroud for the Texans; Liam Coen and DeMeco Ryans coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | HOU 34 at JAX 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | JAX 29 at HOU 36 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | HOU 10 at JAX 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | HOU 23 at JAX 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | JAX 20 at HOU 24 |
2025 records
| Jaguars | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13–4 | 12–5 |
| Division | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 7–2 | 7–2 |
| Away | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 8 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 27.9 – 19.8 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | -0.09#6 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 42%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 8%#3 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | -0.12#4 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 5%#30 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.07#16 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 3.7#4 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 42%#21 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 64%#24 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 143#18 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 59#23 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 8.7#31 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 32#20 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.