2025
Week 4 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Bengals offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 28–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 64%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 0:22, 7 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 0:22DENB.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.75% → 81%
- 2Q1 12:33CINJ.Browning pass deep left to T.Higgins to DEN 31 for 19 yards (R.Moss).23% → 28%
- 3Q1 3:05DENB.Nix pass short right to A.Trautman pushed ob at CIN 23 for 26 yards (D.Knight).73% → 78%
- 4Q1 11:52CINJ.Browning pass short middle to M.Tinsley to DEN 22 for 9 yards (J.McMillian; A.Singleton).28% → 32%
- 5Q2 9:24DENB.Nix pass short left to C.Sutton to CIN 16 for 22 yards (D.Knight). CIN-D.Knight was injured during the play.87% → 90%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Iosivas led the Bengals at +1.5 EPA (1 catches for 22). B.Nix led the Broncos at +14.7 EPA (29 of 42 for 326).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Browning100% | 14/25 | 125 | 3 | -10.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown73% | 10 | 67% | 40 | -0.9 | |
| J.Browning100% | 3 | 20% | 4 | +0.6 | |
| S.Perine31% | 1 | 7% | 4 | -0.1 | |
| A.Iosivas90% | 1 | 7% | 5 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase96% | 8 | 36% | 5 | 23 | -4.0 | |
| T.Higgins83% | 6 | 27% | 3 | 32 | -1.9 | |
| C.Brown73% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 31 | +1.2 | |
| M.Tinsley15% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 9 | +0.2 | |
| S.Perine31% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| M.Gesicki56% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 | |
| A.Iosivas90% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 22 | +1.5 |
Defense D.Jr. 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 26)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 29/42 | 326 | 2 | 1 | +13.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins44% | 16 | 42% | 101 | +3.2 | |
| R.Harvey41% | 14 | 37% | 58 | -3.0 | |
| B.Nix100% | 6 | 16% | 7 | 1 | +1.4 |
| A.Prentice9% | 1 | 3% | 4 | 0.0 | |
| M.Jr.40% | 1 | 3% | 16 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Franklin58% | 8 | 19% | 4 | 55 | -2.1 | |
| E.Engram43% | 7 | 17% | 4 | 29 | -2.5 | |
| C.Sutton85% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 81 | 1 | +10.7 |
| M.Jr.40% | 6 | 14% | 6 | 69 | +2.7 | |
| R.Harvey41% | 5 | 12% | 4 | 40 | 1 | +4.7 |
| A.Trautman52% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 32 | +1.3 | |
| N.Adkins42% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 5 | -0.5 | |
| T.Badie10% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 11 | +0.3 | |
| J.Dobbins44% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 4 | -0.4 | |
| P.Bryant33% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense N.Bonitto 1.5 sacks, J.Franklin-Myers 1 sack, J.Cooper 0.5 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Bengals' tight ends produce 7.6 (12th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Bengals gain -0.03 EPA per dropback (23rd). Broncos allow -0.11 (7th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bengals succeed on 46% of plays (10th) against a defense that allows 37% (1st).
The Broncos lead the series 9–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | CIN 3 at DEN 28 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 · OT | DEN 24 at CIN 30 |
| 2021 · Wk 15 | CIN 15 at DEN 10 |
| 2018 · Wk 13 | DEN 24 at CIN 10 |
| 2017 · Wk 11 | CIN 20 at DEN 17 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 14–3 |
| Division | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Home | 3–6 | 8–1 |
| Away | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | WWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.