2025
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Browns offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Browns, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 34–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 4:36, 10 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:36CLEJ.Flacco pass short left intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by D.Reed [D.Barnes] at CLE 39. D.Reed pushed ob at CLE 5 for 34 yards (K.Leveston).…79% → 89%
- 2Q1 5:41CLEA.Huntington and L.Q.Judkins left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 39%
- 3Q1 3:26DETJ.Gibbs right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 75%
- 4Q1 4:50DETJ.Goff pass deep right to A.St. Brown ran ob at CLE 35 for 25 yards.58% → 64%
- 5Q1 10:03CLEA.J.Flacco pass deep left to J.Jeudy to DET 12 for 33 yards (D.Reed).29% → 35%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Q.Judkins led the Browns at +3.6 EPA (21 carries for 82). A.Brown led the Lions at +8.8 EPA (7 catches for 70).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco96% | 16/34 | 184 | 2 | 3 | -20.0 | |
| D.Gabriel4% | 0/1 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins58% | 21 | 78% | 82 | 1 | +2.4 |
| J.Flacco96% | 3 | 11% | -1 | -1.6 | |
| J.Ford27% | 1 | 4% | -1 | -1.2 | |
| D.Sampson13% | 1 | 4% | -2 | -1.2 | |
| H.Jr.85% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy82% | 9 | 26% | 3 | 48 | -9.7 | |
| H.Jr.85% | 6 | 18% | 2 | 24 | -1.7 | |
| I.Bond55% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 58 | +3.3 | |
| Q.Judkins58% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 33 | +1.3 | |
| D.Njoku84% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 11 | -1.2 | |
| J.Ford27% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| C.Tillman22% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -1.3 | |
| B.Whiteheart18% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Sampson13% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense D.Ward 1 INT · Kicking A.Szmyt 1/2 FG (long 33)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff93% | 16/27 | 168 | 2 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs62% | 15 | 52% | 91 | 1 | +0.9 |
| D.Montgomery33% | 9 | 31% | 12 | -4.6 | |
| K.Allen7% | 2 | 7% | -2 | 0.0 | |
| J.Saylors7% | 2 | 7% | 11 | -1.1 | |
| J.Williams85% | 1 | 3% | -3 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams85% | 8 | 32% | 2 | 40 | -5.3 | |
| A.Brown90% | 7 | 28% | 7 | 70 | 2 | +8.8 |
| S.LaPorta93% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 39 | +1.0 | |
| K.Raymond55% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 13 | -0.8 | |
| J.Gibbs62% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 6 | -2.1 | |
| D.Montgomery33% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Defense A.Hutchinson 2 sacks, D.Reed 1 INT, K.Joseph 1 INT, A.Anzalone 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 2/2 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Lions give up 7.7 targets a game to tight ends (22nd), against a league average of 7.3. Browns' tight ends produce 9.9 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Browns send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Lions
Browns convert 34% of third downs (29th). Lions allow 37% (9th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Browns create explosive plays on 7% of snaps (30th). Lions give them up at 11% (23rd).
The Lions lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | CLE 10 at DET 34 |
| 2021 · Wk 11 | DET 10 at CLE 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 10 | CLE 24 at DET 38 |
| 2013 · Wk 6 | DET 31 at CLE 17 |
| 2009 · Wk 11 | CLE 37 at DET 38 |
2025 records
| Browns | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 9–8 |
| Division | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | WLLLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 16.4 – 22.3 | 28.3 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.19#31 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#32 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#30 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.29#32 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#25 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#25 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#30 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#29 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#26 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 86#32 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 63#6 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.9#2 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#7 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.