2025
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Commanders offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 17 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 34–27 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 10:05, 13 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:05ATLM.Penix pass short right to B.Robinson to WAS 7 for 69 yards (J.Reaves).70% → 84%
- 2Q2 10:43ATLM.Penix pass deep left to D.London to WAS 26 for 43 yards (M.Lattimore). Penalty on WAS-M.Lattimore, Defensive Holding, declined.64% → 74%
- 3Q3 5:25WASM.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by M.Sainristil at ATL 48. M.Sainristil to ATL 25 for 23 yards (D.London).9% → 19%
- 4Q3 12:52WASM.Mariota scrambles right guard pushed ob at ATL 37 for 22 yards (X.Watts).20% → 28%
- 5Q1 14:20ATLM.Penix pass deep right to K.Pitts to WAS 34 for 26 yards (T.Amos).56% → 64%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Sr. led the Commanders at +7.8 EPA (6 catches for 72). M.Jr. led the Falcons at +17.6 EPA (20 of 26 for 313).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota100% | 16/27 | 156 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.35% | 7 | 32% | 59 | +0.2 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt35% | 7 | 32% | 47 | +2.7 | |
| D.Sr.86% | 3 | 14% | 9 | -0.5 | |
| M.Mariota100% | 2 | 9% | 20 | +2.5 | |
| J.McNichols33% | 2 | 9% | 3 | -0.9 | |
| C.Moore70% | 1 | 5% | 9 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sr.86% | 6 | 25% | 6 | 72 | 1 | +8.3 |
| Z.Ertz61% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 21 | +1.5 | |
| C.Moore70% | 3 | 13% | 0 | 0 | -2.5 | |
| L.McCaffrey37% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 21 | 1 | +1.1 |
| J.Lane44% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 18 | -3.8 | |
| J.McNichols33% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt35% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 10 | +0.4 | |
| T.Martin | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | +1.8 |
Defense M.Sainristil 1 INT, F.Luvu 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 4/4 FG (long 52)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 20/26 | 313 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +18.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson69% | 17 | 46% | 75 | 1 | -0.5 |
| T.Allgeier32% | 16 | 43% | 51 | 1 | -2.5 |
| M.Jr.100% | 4 | 11% | 2 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London85% | 10 | 38% | 8 | 110 | 1 | +4.0 |
| K.Pitts74% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 70 | 1 | +7.8 |
| B.Robinson69% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 106 | +7.4 | |
| C.Washington52% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 19 | +1.1 | |
| R.McCloud | 2 | 8% | 1 | -7 | -2.5 | |
| D.Mooney45% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.8 |
Defense X.Watts 1 INT, Z.Harrison 1 sack, L.Floyd 0.5 sacks, K.Elliss 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Romo 2/2 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Falcons allow 4.4 (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Falcons are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.79 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Falcons give up 6.0 targets a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 7.3. Commanders' tight ends produce 6.1 (22nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Commanders average +0.01 EPA per play (17th). Falcons allow -0.01 (15th). League average is +0.01.
The Falcons lead the series 7–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | WAS 27 at ATL 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 · OT | ATL 24 at WAS 30 |
| 2023 · Wk 6 | WAS 24 at ATL 16 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | ATL 13 at WAS 19 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | WAS 34 at ATL 30 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | -0.01#15 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 45%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.3#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 10%#20 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | -0.03#13 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 10%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.02#24 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.4#23 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 41%#16 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 53%#4 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 144#20 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 46#8 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 6.0#5 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 30#17 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.