2025
Week 4 · Monday 7:15 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Dolphins won 27–21; their low point was 45% at Q1 4:13. The game turned for good at Q1 3:06: M.B.Allen right guard to MIA 1 for 5 yards (J.Jones; A.Davis). FUMBLES (J.Jones), RECOVERED by MIA-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 4 (47% → 60%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:06NYJM.B.Allen right guard to MIA 1 for 5 yards (J.Jones; A.Davis). FUMBLES (J.Jones), RECOVERED by MIA-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 4.turning point47% → 60%
- 2Q3 9:36NYJJ.Fields scrambles left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.8% → 21%
- 3Q2 12:55MIAT.Tagovailoa pass deep right to J.Waddle to NYJ 21 for 25 yards (M.Carter; T.Adams).65% → 74%
- 4Q2 9:26MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short middle to D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.71% → 78%
- 5Q2 4:23NYJJ.Fields sacked at MIA 47 for -11 yards (T.Dodson). FUMBLES (T.Dodson) [T.Dodson], RECOVERED by MIA-Ja.Phillips at NYJ 47. Ja.Phillips to NYJ 43…79% → 86%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Fields led the Jets at +13.8 EPA (20 of 27 for 226). T.Tagovailoa led the Dolphins at +11.5 EPA (17 of 25 for 177).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fields100% | 20/27 | 226 | 1 | 2 | +5.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall63% | 14 | 50% | 81 | +0.5 | |
| J.Fields100% | 7 | 25% | 81 | 1 | +8.2 |
| B.Allen10% | 4 | 14% | 26 | -3.7 | |
| I.Davis33% | 3 | 11% | 9 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson98% | 8 | 30% | 6 | 82 | 1 | +3.8 |
| M.Taylor81% | 7 | 26% | 5 | 65 | +6.9 | |
| B.Hall63% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 30 | -1.6 | |
| J.Reynolds67% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| I.Davis33% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 18 | +1.0 | |
| A.Lazard | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.2 | |
| J.Ruckert40% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 23 | +1.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 58)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 17/25 | 177 | 2 | +10.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane76% | 20 | 65% | 99 | 1 | -2.1 |
| O.II26% | 6 | 19% | 10 | -2.0 | |
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 3 | 10% | 6 | +1.1 | |
| M.Washington48% | 2 | 6% | 8 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Hill41% | 6 | 24% | 6 | 67 | +7.3 | |
| J.Waddle90% | 6 | 24% | 3 | 48 | +0.5 | |
| D.Waller28% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 27 | 2 | +6.5 |
| M.Washington48% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 13 | -2.4 | |
| J.Hill69% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 19 | +1.0 | |
| D.Achane76% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 2 | -1.1 | |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine47% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -0.8 | |
| O.II26% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense R.Douglas 1 sack, T.Dodson 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/2 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Dolphins give up 37 yards a game to running backs (25th), against a league average of 32. Jets' running backs produce 35 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Jets send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Dolphins give up 127 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 140. Jets' wide receivers produce 92 (31st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jets succeed on 40% of plays (29th) against a defense that allows 48% (29th).
The Dolphins lead the series 29–26 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Oct 25, 2026, at MetLife Stadium: the Dolphins won 28–25. Geno Smith started at quarterback for the Jets and Malik Willis for the Dolphins; Aaron Glenn and Jeff Hafley coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | MIA 28 at NYJ 25 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | MIA 34 at NYJ 10 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 | NYJ 21 at MIA 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | MIA 20 at NYJ 32 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 · OT | NYJ 26 at MIA 32 |
2025 records
| Jets | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 7–10 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Home | 2–7 | 5–4 |
| Away | 1–7 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | +0.09#26 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 48%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 11%#25 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | +0.13#26 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.03#20 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 4.6#25 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 41%#17 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 65%#26 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 127#9 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 66#29 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 8.2#25 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 37#25 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.