2025
Week 4 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Packers offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
Neither team won: 40–40 after overtime. The Packers got as high as 95% (Q2 6:05), and the Cowboys got as high as 73% (Q4 0:35). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:50, 34 points for the Cowboys.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:50DALD.Prescott pass short left to G.Pickens for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Parsons].37% → 70%
- 2Q4 1:49GBJ.Love pass short middle to R.Doubs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.57% → 80%
- 3Q2 0:13DALD.Prescott pass short middle to G.Pickens for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.34% → 53%
- 4Q4 11:45GBJ.Jacobs right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.62% → 78%
- 5Q4 0:22GBJ.Love pass short right to M.Heath pushed ob at DAL 40 for 9 yards (K.Elam) [O.Odighizuwa].28% → 43%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
J.Love led the Packers at +24.2 EPA (31 of 43 for 337). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +23.9 EPA (31 of 40 for 319).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 31/43 | 337 | 3 | 1 | +21.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs65% | 22 | 63% | 86 | 2 | +1.5 |
| E.Wilson30% | 8 | 23% | 44 | +0.9 | |
| J.Love100% | 3 | 9% | 28 | +2.7 | |
| S.Williams12% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.4 | |
| M.Golden59% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Doubs90% | 8 | 22% | 6 | 58 | 3 | +8.3 |
| M.Golden59% | 6 | 17% | 5 | 58 | +8.1 | |
| T.Kraft95% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 56 | +5.1 | |
| J.Jacobs65% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 71 | +5.3 | |
| D.Wicks77% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 19 | -2.0 | |
| E.Wilson30% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 37 | +2.4 | |
| S.Williams12% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 22 | -0.5 | |
| M.Heath23% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.3 | |
| C.Brooks6% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.4 | |
| L.Musgrave30% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 |
Defense M.Parsons 1 sack · Kicking B.McManus 2/2 FG (long 53)
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 31/40 | 319 | 3 | 1 | +22.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams80% | 20 | 77% | 85 | 1 | -0.1 |
| M.Sanders10% | 2 | 8% | 8 | -0.2 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 1 | 4% | 2 | 1 | +1.4 |
| K.Turpin61% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 | |
| H.Luepke25% | 1 | 4% | 6 | -0.4 | |
| R.Flournoy23% | 1 | 4% | 12 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens90% | 11 | 29% | 8 | 134 | 2 | +15.1 |
| J.Ferguson78% | 7 | 18% | 7 | 40 | 1 | +4.3 |
| J.Tolbert81% | 6 | 16% | 4 | 61 | +1.6 | |
| K.Turpin61% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 30 | +3.6 | |
| J.Williams80% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 15 | +0.3 | |
| M.Sanders10% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 17 | +1.1 | |
| L.Schoonmaker28% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 8 | -0.2 | |
| R.Flournoy23% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 14 | +1.3 | |
| H.Luepke25% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Defense J.Houston 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/1 FG (long 22)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Cowboys allow +0.22 (31st).
Deep middle is open
Cowboys are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.41 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cowboys give up 6.8 targets a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Packers gain 5.7 yards per play (9th). Cowboys give up 6.3 (31st), with the league at 5.4.
The Packers lead the series 12–4–1 since 1999. Oct 18, 2026, at Lambeau Field: the Packers won 23–13. Jordan Love started at quarterback for the Packers and Dak Prescott for the Cowboys; Matt LaFleur and Brian Schottenheimer coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | DAL 13 at GB 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 · OT | GB 40 at DAL 40 |
| 2023 · Wk 19 · playoffs | GB 48 at DAL 32 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 · OT | DAL 28 at GB 31 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | GB 34 at DAL 24 |
2025 records
| Packers | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 7–9–1 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 4–7–1 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 4–3–1 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | LLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 27.7 – 30.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | +0.17#32 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 6.3#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 12%#31 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | +0.22#31 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | +0.05#30 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.7#27 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 48%#32 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 67%#29 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 171#32 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 52#15 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 6.8#12 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 43#31 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.