2025
Week 4 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 37–20 from as low as 24% (Q1 1:50, down 7–3). The Ravens had been 59% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 6:46: M.X.Worthy left end ran ob at BAL 21 for 35 yards (R.Smith) (45% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:27, 11 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:27BALL.Jackson sacked at BAL 42 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-D.Tranquill at BAL 47. Penalty on BAL-D.Faalele, Offensive Holding, declined.79% → 90%
- 2Q2 3:01BALL.Jackson pass incomplete deep right [G.Karlaftis].65% → 75%
- 3Q1 1:50BALL.Jackson pass deep right intended for M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by L.Chenal [N.Bolton] at KC 16. L.Chenal to KC 16 for no gain (M.Andrews).24% → 33%
- 4Q2 4:03KCP.Mahomes pass short left to J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.55% → 63%
- 5Q2 6:46KCM.X.Worthy left end ran ob at BAL 21 for 35 yards (R.Smith).turning point45% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Hill led the Ravens at +8.7 EPA (3 carries for 76). P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +13.6 EPA (25 of 37 for 270).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson69% | 14/20 | 147 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5.2 |
| C.Rush29% | 9/13 | 52 | -5.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry38% | 8 | 47% | 42 | -1.3 | |
| L.Jackson69% | 6 | 35% | 48 | +2.8 | |
| J.Hill58% | 3 | 18% | 76 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Andrews55% | 8 | 27% | 7 | 30 | -4.2 | |
| Z.Flowers87% | 8 | 27% | 7 | 74 | +4.3 | |
| J.Hill58% | 6 | 20% | 5 | 41 | 1 | +2.5 |
| D.Henry38% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 16 | +0.5 | |
| R.Bateman80% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 24 | +0.8 | |
| T.Wallace40% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 14 | -0.1 | |
| D.Hopkins33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
Defense T.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 2/2 FG (long 43)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes92% | 25/37 | 270 | 4 | 1 | +16.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt44% | 13 | 41% | 34 | +1.9 | |
| I.Pacheco37% | 7 | 22% | 35 | -0.3 | |
| P.Mahomes92% | 4 | 13% | 5 | -2.6 | |
| B.Smith26% | 4 | 13% | 9 | -2.4 | |
| G.Minshew8% | 2 | 6% | -3 | 0.0 | |
| X.Worthy59% | 2 | 6% | 38 | +2.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X.Worthy59% | 8 | 23% | 5 | 83 | +6.7 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster78% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 36 | 1 | +1.3 |
| T.Kelce66% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 48 | +3.2 | |
| M.Brown52% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 38 | 1 | +3.7 |
| B.Smith26% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 27 | +1.0 | |
| I.Pacheco37% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 13 | 1 | +1.2 |
| T.Thornton34% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 11 | 1 | +0.7 |
| K.Hunt44% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +1.7 | |
| N.Gray56% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.6 |
Defense L.Chenal 1 INT, J.Tillery 1 sack, G.Karlaftis 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 3/4 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Ravens
Ravens convert 41% of third downs (15th). Chiefs allow 44% (27th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Ravens score a touchdown on 49% of red zone trips (27th). Chiefs allow 55% (10th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Ravens succeed on 45% of plays (14th) against a defense that allows 44% (14th).
The Chiefs lead the series 10–5 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | BAL 20 at KC 37 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | BAL 20 at KC 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 21 · playoffs | KC 17 at BAL 10 |
| 2021 · Wk 2 | KC 35 at BAL 36 |
| 2020 · Wk 3 | KC 34 at BAL 20 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 6–11 |
| Division | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.