2025
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 17 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 26–0 and were favored the whole way, never below 70%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 10:46, 7 points for the Titans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:46TENK.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right12% → 19%
- 2Q1 13:32TENC.Ward pass deep left to E.Ayomanor to HOU 28 for 33 yards (J.Pitre).25% → 30%
- 3Q2 0:46TENC.Ward pass short middle to C.Ridley to HOU 40 for 22 yards (D.Stingley).16% → 20%
- 4Q4 12:49HOUC.Ward pass deep right intended for E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by D.Stingley at HOU 36. D.Stingley to TEN 44 for 20 yards (E.Ayomanor).94% → 98%
- 5Q2 0:03HOUJ.Slye 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right84% → 88%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Ridley led the Titans at +2.5 EPA (2 catches for 30). C.Stroud led the Texans at +11.9 EPA (22 of 28 for 233).
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 10/26 | 108 | 1 | 2 | -16.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard86% | 14 | 78% | 64 | +1.4 | |
| C.Ward100% | 2 | 11% | 22 | +2.3 | |
| J.Chestnut14% | 1 | 6% | 0 | -1.5 | |
| C.Dike40% | 1 | 6% | -4 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Ayomanor82% | 7 | 30% | 2 | 44 | -7.1 | |
| T.Lockett72% | 4 | 17% | 0 | 0 | -4.8 | |
| C.Ridley54% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 30 | +2.5 | |
| T.Pollard86% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 12 | -0.6 | |
| C.Okonkwo70% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| V.Jefferson38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 | |
| J.Chestnut14% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| G.Helm40% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 12 | +0.5 |
Defense A.Key 1 sack, J.Simmons 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 0/2 FG
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 22/28 | 233 | 2 | 2 | +8.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks56% | 17 | 49% | 69 | 1 | +1.3 |
| N.Chubb42% | 13 | 37% | 47 | -3.0 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 4 | 11% | 11 | +3.7 | |
| J.Noel24% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz85% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 30 | -0.6 | |
| N.Collins86% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 79 | +3.4 | |
| W.Marks56% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 50 | 1 | +4.1 |
| C.Kirk61% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 20 | -0.5 | |
| X.Hutchinson68% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 17 | +0.9 | |
| N.Chubb42% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 15 | +1.2 | |
| J.Higgins44% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 24 | 1 | +3.1 |
| J.Noel24% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -2 | -1.2 |
Defense D.Hunter 2 sacks, D.Jr. 1 INT · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/3 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Titans give up 166 yards a game to wide receivers (28th), against a league average of 140. Texans' wide receivers produce 160 (8th).
Deep middle is open
Titans are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Texans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Titans give up 27 yards a game to running backs (7th), against a league average of 32. Texans' running backs produce 21 (29th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Texans create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (25th). Titans give them up at 11% (22nd).
The Texans lead the series 25–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 4. Oct 11, 2026, at Nissan Stadium: the Texans won 26–3. Cam Ward started at quarterback for the Titans and C.J. Stroud for the Texans; Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | HOU 26 at TEN 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | HOU 16 at TEN 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 | TEN 0 at HOU 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | HOU 23 at TEN 14 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | TEN 32 at HOU 27 |
2025 records
| Titans | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 12–5 |
| Division | 0–6 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 1–8 | 7–2 |
| Away | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 28.1 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | +0.10#28 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 45%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 6.0#28 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 11%#22 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | +0.17#29 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.02#22 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 4.2#18 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 42%#19 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 67%#31 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 166#28 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 56#21 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 7.1#15 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 27#7 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.