2025
Week 4 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 24–21; their low point was 29% at Q1 8:10. The Vikings had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 13:42: PENALTY on MIN-C.Darrisaw, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at PIT 44 - No Play (47% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 12:28, 19 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:28PITA.Rodgers pass short middle to D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 70%
- 2Q4 0:43MINC.Wentz pass incomplete short left [N.Herbig]. PENALTY on MIN-C.Wentz, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at MIN 39.73% → 90%
- 3Q4 1:08PITC.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Touchback.11% → 23%
- 4Q4 2:13MINC.Wentz pass short right to J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6% → 17%
- 5Q4 3:25MINC.Wentz pass deep right to J.Addison to PIT 1 for 81 yards (P.Wilson).6% → 17%
- ★Q2 13:42MINPENALTY on MIN-C.Darrisaw, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at PIT 44 - No Play.turning point47% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Jefferson led the Vikings at +7.1 EPA (10 catches for 126). D.Metcalf led the Steelers at +10.1 EPA (5 catches for 126).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Wentz100% | 30/46 | 350 | 2 | 2 | 6 | +3.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason62% | 16 | 80% | 57 | -0.3 | |
| C.Wentz100% | 2 | 10% | 12 | +1.6 | |
| Z.Scott38% | 2 | 10% | 1 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 11 | 26% | 10 | 126 | +7.1 | |
| Z.Scott38% | 8 | 19% | 6 | 43 | 1 | -1.1 |
| J.Addison96% | 8 | 19% | 4 | 114 | +2.2 | |
| T.Hockenson93% | 5 | 12% | 4 | 39 | +1.3 | |
| J.Nailor63% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2.3 |
| J.Mason62% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 15 | -0.1 | |
| A.Thielen16% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 11 | +2.6 | |
| J.Oliver28% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense J.Redmond 2 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 41)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 18/22 | 200 | 1 | 2 | +3.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Gainwell77% | 19 | 66% | 99 | 2 | +3.4 |
| K.Johnson21% | 6 | 21% | 22 | -0.7 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 3 | 10% | 8 | +0.8 | |
| C.Heyward30% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Gainwell77% | 6 | 27% | 6 | 35 | -1.2 | |
| D.Metcalf79% | 5 | 23% | 5 | 126 | 1 | +10.1 |
| J.Smith25% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 6 | -1.5 | |
| D.Washington91% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 20 | +0.9 | |
| C.III51% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 13 | +0.7 | |
| S.Miller25% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| B.Skowronek34% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| K.Johnson21% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense T.Watt 1 sack and 1 INT, D.Elliott 1 sack and 1 INT, N.Herbig 1.5 sacks, K.Benton 1.5 sacks · Kicking C.Boswell 1/2 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Vikings' run game is 18th in EPA per carry (-0.05). Steelers allow -0.01 (26th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Vikings take a sack on 11% of dropbacks (31st). Steelers get home on 7% (10th). League average is 7%.
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Vikings create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (13th). Steelers give them up at 9% (15th).
The Steelers lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | MIN 21 at PIT 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 14 | PIT 28 at MIN 36 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | MIN 9 at PIT 26 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 | PIT 27 at MIN 34 |
| 2009 · Wk 7 | MIN 17 at PIT 27 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 10–7 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 5 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.