2025
Week 5 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 26–23 from as low as 20% (Q1 14:24, tied 0–0). The Rams had been 77% favorites at kickoff. Tied 23–23 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 5:55: E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:07, 57 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:07SFK.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (A.Collins). FUMBLES (A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-A.Collins at SF 1.23% → 80%
- 2Q4 0:06LAJ.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD28% → 53%
- 3Q4 2:57SFE.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is GOOD39% → 60%
- 4Q4 10:43LAM.Stafford pass short left to K.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.48% → 65%
- 5Q2 8:56SFM.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 31, touched at SF 30, RECOVERED by SF-T.Gipson at SF 30.51% → 65%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
M.Jones led the 49ers at +17.0 EPA (33 of 49 for 342). M.Stafford led the Rams at +9.2 EPA (30 of 47 for 389).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jones100% | 33/49 | 342 | 2 | 1 | +14.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey88% | 22 | 67% | 57 | -6.8 | |
| B.Robinson14% | 5 | 15% | 12 | +1.7 | |
| M.Jones100% | 4 | 12% | 5 | +3.0 | |
| K.Juszczyk42% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -1.2 | |
| S.Moore9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Bourne81% | 11 | 23% | 10 | 142 | +11.2 | |
| J.Tonges73% | 11 | 23% | 7 | 41 | 1 | -0.2 |
| C.McCaffrey88% | 9 | 19% | 8 | 82 | 1 | +5.9 |
| D.Robinson85% | 7 | 15% | 3 | 39 | +0.5 | |
| K.Juszczyk42% | 4 | 8% | 3 | 21 | -1.1 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling53% | 3 | 6% | 1 | 9 | +0.1 | |
| L.Farrell44% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.3 | |
| M.Turner7% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense B.Huff 1 sack · Kicking E.Pineiro 4/4 FG (long 59)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 30/47 | 389 | 3 | 1 | +15.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams91% | 14 | 88% | 65 | -5.6 | |
| M.Stafford100% | 1 | 6% | 0 | -5.9 | |
| B.Corum9% | 1 | 6% | 13 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua93% | 12 | 26% | 10 | 85 | 1 | +5.8 |
| D.Adams85% | 11 | 24% | 5 | 88 | +1.6 | |
| K.Williams91% | 10 | 22% | 8 | 66 | 2 | +3.0 |
| T.Atwell66% | 4 | 9% | 2 | 72 | +3.6 | |
| J.Whittington40% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 33 | +1.4 | |
| D.Allen60% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 24 | +1.7 | |
| B.Corum9% | 2 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| C.Parkinson37% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| T.Ferguson6% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 21 | +1.9 |
Defense B.Young 0.5 sacks, K.Turner 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Karty 1/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Rams take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (3rd). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Rams send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
49ers give up 35 yards a game to running backs (23rd), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 21 (30th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (6th). 49ers give them up at 8% (4th).
The 49ers lead the series 31–24–1 since 1999. Sep 10, 2026, at Melbourne Cricket Ground: the 49ers won 27–7. Matthew Stafford started at quarterback for the Rams and Brock Purdy for the 49ers; Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | SF 27 at LA 7 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | LA 42 at SF 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 5 · OT | SF 26 at LA 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | LA 12 at SF 6 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | SF 24 at LA 27 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 12–5 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 5–3 | 7–1 |
| Away | 7–2 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.