2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsRams defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 20 for Rams. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 17–3; their low point was 48% at Q2 1:47. The game turned for good at Q2 1:47: Direct snap to M.Andrews. M.Andrews up the middle to LA 1 for no gain (N.Landman; B.Fiske) (48% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 1:29, 14 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:29LAM.Stafford sacked at BAL 44 for -7 yards (J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (J.Jenkins) [J.Jenkins], touched at BAL 46, RECOVERED by BAL-J.Jenkins at BAL 48.…26% → 40%
- 2Q1 2:27LAJ.Karty 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright24% → 36%
- 3Q3 12:20LAM.Stafford pass deep left to K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.71% → 81%
- 4Q3 11:14BALC.Rush pass short right to Z.Flowers to BAL 36 for 10 yards (J.Verse; N.Landman). FUMBLES (J.Verse), RECOVERED by LA-Q.Lake at BAL 41. Q.Lake to…86% → 93%
- 5Q2 1:52BALD.Henry right guard to LA 1 for 3 yards (T.Davis).45% → 52%
- ★Q2 1:47BALDirect snap to M.Andrews. M.Andrews up the middle to LA 1 for no gain (N.Landman; B.Fiske).turning point48% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Williams led the Rams at +4.8 EPA (13 carries for 50). D.Hopkins led the Ravens at +0.4 EPA (2 catches for 20).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 17/26 | 181 | 1 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams75% | 13 | 57% | 50 | 1 | -0.1 |
| B.Corum23% | 5 | 22% | 23 | -0.2 | |
| M.Stafford100% | 4 | 17% | 1 | -2.1 | |
| T.Ferguson32% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Adams79% | 9 | 35% | 4 | 39 | -0.5 | |
| T.Higbee66% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 40 | 1 | +3.8 |
| J.Whittington92% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 23 | +0.2 | |
| P.Nacua51% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 28 | +3.1 | |
| K.Williams75% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 37 | +4.9 | |
| D.Allen40% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 7 | -0.4 | |
| K.Mumpfield17% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 7 | -0.1 |
Defense B.Young 2 sacks, Q.Lake 1 INT, L.Murchison 1 sack, J.Verse 1 sack · Kicking J.Karty 1/2 FG (long 36)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Rush68% | 11/19 | 72 | 1 | -5.1 | ||
| T.Huntley32% | 10/15 | 68 | 4 | -7.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry49% | 24 | 65% | 122 | -2.1 | |
| J.Hill45% | 6 | 16% | 16 | -2.6 | |
| M.Andrews78% | 3 | 8% | 2 | -1.7 | |
| T.Huntley32% | 3 | 8% | 39 | +5.8 | |
| C.Rush68% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -5.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers91% | 10 | 31% | 6 | 46 | -10.3 | |
| M.Andrews78% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 24 | +1.2 | |
| J.Hill45% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 28 | -1.7 | |
| D.Hopkins33% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 20 | +0.4 | |
| D.Henry49% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.1 | |
| I.Likely81% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 6 | -0.7 | |
| R.Bateman56% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.2 | |
| C.Kolar36% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense J.Jenkins 1 sack, T.Simpson 0.5 sacks, T.Buchanan 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Loop 1/1 FG (long 37)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Ravens average 5.2 yards per carry (1st). Rams allow 4.0 (11th).
Deep middle is open
Rams are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.60 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Ravens score a touchdown on 49% of red zone trips (27th). Rams allow 57% (13th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Ravens average +0.03 EPA per play (11th). Rams allow -0.05 (11th). League average is +0.01.
The Ravens lead the series 5–4 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | LA 17 at BAL 3 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 · OT | LA 31 at BAL 37 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | LA 20 at BAL 19 |
| 2019 · Wk 12 | BAL 45 at LA 6 |
| 2015 · Wk 11 | LA 13 at BAL 16 |
2025 records
| Rams | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 7–1 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWLLW | LWLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 30.5 – 20.4 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors LA | LA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 43%#12 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 5.3#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 8%#9 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.09#7 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 4.0#11 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 38%#10 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 57%#13 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 159#25 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 45#7 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 7.5#19 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 39#26 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Rams: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.