2025
Week 7 · Monday 7:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Lions offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Lions, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 24–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 68%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 7:49, 9 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:49TBJ.Goff sacked at TB 44 for -9 yards (Y.Diaby). FUMBLES (Y.Diaby) [Y.Diaby], RECOVERED by TB-E.Roberts at TB 40.13% → 23%
- 2Q2 6:01DETJ.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 94%
- 3Q1 12:06DETJ.Goff pass short middle to A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.75% → 82%
- 4Q3 8:58TBB.Mayfield pass short right to T.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13% → 21%
- 5Q1 14:53DETJ.Goff pass short right to J.Gibbs pushed ob at TB 39 for 30 yards (T.Smith).68% → 75%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Johnson led the Buccaneers at +2.3 EPA (4 catches for 58). J.Gibbs led the Lions at +13.2 EPA (17 carries for 136).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield99% | 28/50 | 228 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -25.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White90% | 10 | 83% | 38 | +1.9 | |
| T.Bridgewater1% | 1 | 8% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| S.Tucker10% | 1 | 8% | 4 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka75% | 12 | 24% | 4 | 58 | -8.3 | |
| C.Otton97% | 9 | 18% | 7 | 65 | -2.0 | |
| T.Johnson68% | 9 | 18% | 4 | 58 | 1 | +2.3 |
| S.Shepard64% | 7 | 14% | 7 | 25 | -6.0 | |
| R.White90% | 6 | 12% | 4 | 6 | -4.0 | |
| M.Evans20% | 4 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -3.7 | |
| R.Miller13% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 14 | -1.7 | |
| S.Tucker10% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| K.Johnson22% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
Defense J.Dean 1 INT, A.Nelson 1 sack, S.Dennis 1 sack, Y.Diaby 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 1/1 FG (long 53)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 20/29 | 241 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs56% | 17 | 53% | 136 | 2 | +6.8 |
| D.Montgomery44% | 13 | 41% | 21 | -6.3 | |
| J.Goff100% | 2 | 6% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown91% | 10 | 36% | 6 | 86 | 1 | 0.0 |
| K.Raymond44% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 17 | -0.8 | |
| D.Montgomery44% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 18 | -0.1 | |
| B.Wright54% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 23 | +1.6 | |
| S.LaPorta97% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 15 | +1.1 | |
| J.Gibbs56% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 82 | +6.4 | |
| J.Williams85% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -3.0 | |
| I.TeSlaa13% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -3.5 |
Defense A.Maulet 1 INT, T.Wheat 1.5 sacks, D.Barnes 1 sack, J.Campbell 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 1/2 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Buccaneers give up 51 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Lions' running backs produce 47 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Lions send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Lions' run game is 16th in EPA per carry (-0.05). Buccaneers allow -0.11 (5th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Lions succeed on 45% of plays (12th) against a defense that allows 45% (20th).
The Buccaneers lead the series 11–10 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | TB 9 at DET 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | TB 20 at DET 16 |
| 2023 · Wk 20 · playoffs | TB 23 at DET 31 |
| 2023 · Wk 6 | DET 20 at TB 6 |
| 2020 · Wk 16 | TB 47 at DET 7 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 9–8 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Away | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WLLLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 28.3 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#6 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#12 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#8 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#4 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#16 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#8 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#3 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#26 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.4#31 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#4 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.